SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The San Francisco 49ers don’t do middle ground.

No, under Kyle Shanahan, they either find a way to the top of the NFC or collapse like a lawn chair in a hurricane.

That’s because more often than not, this team is walking a tightrope with its roster.

That’s what happens when you have a studs-and-duds type operation, built around players with serious miles on the odometer.

And this year, despite the Niners’ best efforts, has proven to be no different to date.

There’s a terrifying fragility to this 2026 team. It’s already manifested to the point where their top three running backs, pass catchers, top fullback and tight end, not to mention their most important pass rusher, have all been sidelined in training camp.

The season isn’t in jeopardy before it even starts — the Niners have another month before they play a regular-season game. But if 20 players out for practice isn’t a red flag, well, you might be color blind.

Because anyone who has followed the 49ers over the past few years knows exactly what that feeling of dread forming in your gut feels like, and it’s brewing right now.

It carries heavy 2024 vibes.

But, hey, it could also be 2023 vibes.

And those are two massively different results with, effectively, the same product.

In 2023, the Niners stayed remarkably healthy. Sure, they had to figure out a few things on the edge opposite Nick Bosa, sure, but they were a dominant machine that had every right to believe they should’ve walked away with a Lombardi Trophy.

Then came 2024. They walked into the season with that same top-heavy roster, but the injury bug bit hard and the whole house of cards collapsed, fast.

Which brings us to right now.

I’m not going to sit here and pretend this team doesn’t have the potential for a colossal disaster. A five- or six-win season. The schedule is tougher, the veterans are older, and while there’s a bit more depth than in years past, there still isn’t enough insulation on the two- and three-deep.

If the injury bug continues to run through this organization and hit the wrong stars at the wrong time, the floor isn’t just low — it’s subterranean.

After all, this is a team whose top receiver has battled hamstring injuries for the last five years, who has a 38-year-old left tackle keeping the pass game working, a running back in his vintage sports car era, a tight end coming off an Achilles tendon tear this calendar year. And that’s just the offense. The three most important defensive players — Bosa, Fred Warner and Mykel Williams (the one-man run-stopping machine) — are all coming off injuries in 2025.

We’ve seen that movie before, and nobody wants to buy a ticket for the sequel.

But I also don’t want to diminish the massive upside everyone seems to be conveniently stepping around at the moment.

If things actually click and bodies stay mostly intact, this could be both a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense.

Last time I checked my notes, stacking a top-10 offense on top of a top-10 defense makes you a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

And I can see that coming to pass, too.

Even without Ricky Pearsall at Z receiver, Brock Purdy looks like he’s playing a step ahead of everyone else — not just on his team but the Tennessee Titans in the teams’ joint practice Tuesday, too.

He’s processing coverage faster than a Silicon Valley supercomputer, slicing up defenses with the icy calm of an assassin. Sure, he’s down key weapons, but it hasn’t mattered much. Plus, he should have them back for Week 1.

It all has the makings of an MVP campaign if it carries into the regular season.

And on the other side of the ball, this defense has a chance to be downright vicious. It’s easy to forget — it’s been a minute — but it’s unmistakable on the practice field: Warner and Dre Greenlaw are setting a tone, and when those two play together, it’s a unit that can lock down anyone when it counts. Pair that with a defensive line that will at least get some push, and a secondary that is emanating confidence, and the potential for a big year-over-year turnaround is there.

Is this season going to land somewhere in the middle of the two options? Probably not.

Modern 49ers football doesn’t do “middle of the road.” That’s reserved for mediocre franchises in boring cities.

There’s not a single boring thing about these 49ers. Even their quiet preseasons are full of intrigue.

Seriously, how many different conspiracy theories are floating out there about this team right now?

No, with the Niners, it’s going to be a dramatic swing to one side or the other. It’s either a boom that takes them back to a Sunday in February, or a bust that leaves everyone asking hard, painful questions by Thanksgiving.

The margin for error is thinner than a PCL or five. And you can feel the tension in every snap, every rep and every slow-to-get-up moment at camp. That feeling won’t go away in the regular season.

So which is it going to be? Healthy boom or injured bust?

Lucky for us, we don’t have to make up our minds for another month.

Just enough time for everything to change a few more times for this team.

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