Greg Cote: History suggests the Dolphins may be a surprise team in '26

MIAMI — Training camps blossom across the NFL landscape this week as American football takes the handoff, and the headlines, from the football World Cup. Thirty-two teams bring 32 degrees of expectations, but no team kicks off the 2026 season with hopes at once higher, and lower, than the Miami Dolphins.

Hopes are high in South Florida with the thoroughly needed fresh start embodied by new coach Jeff Hafley and new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan.

Hopes are low mirroring how very needed this complete rebuild was, and the arduous climb facing the new regime.

Signs of a bright future and the reality of a dismal present are both in equal play as the Fins open camp on this strangest of seasons.

The once-proud franchise of Don Shula, the Perfect Season and Dan Marino has spent this century wallowing in mediocrity since last winning a playoff game in the 2000 season, the longest drought in the league.

Hafley and Sullivan arrive from Green Bay to fumigate the place, remove the stench and decay. To rebuild.

The experts and the betting odds expect futility on the field, something close to awful. Miami’s 350-1 odds of winning the Super Bowl are second-worst in the league, better than only Arizona. The Dolphins are the early underdogs in 16 of 17 games, favored only at home vs. the New York Jets, and barely that.

A season bad enough to earn the 2027 overall No. 1 draft pick is possible. But is it likely? And should Dolfans hope for the worst as they cheer of the best? The sign for this year reads: ‘Caution: Weird Season Ahead.’

It would be a good year to be really bad, as the ‘27 draft is loaded with potential franchise quarterbacks like Arch Manning of Texas, Dante Moore of Oregon and perhaps C.J. Carr of Notre Dame and Trinidad Chambliss of Ole Miss. As many as eight or 10 QBs could go first-round, many of those in the top 10.

Miami, finally moved on from the Tua Tagovailoa disappointment, clearly needs a franchise quarterback ... unless you believe 2026 Band-Aid Malik Willis may prove to be that answer. But getting that draft prize might not require the No. 1 pick, just a high one.

And that’s good, because there is zero indication the new leadership will be tanking, and good reason to think the Dolphins may be ‘over’ the betting over/under of 4 1/2 victories.

“We’re going to play the best players. That’s the beautiful part about the culture, the competition that’s going to be at the forefront of everything,” the new GM Sullivan said after the April draft. “It doesn’t matter if you’re a second-round pick or an undrafted free agent, an eight-year veteran or a second-year player, if you give us the best chance to win on Sunday, you’re going to be one of the 22 on the field. We’re just not in a situation where we have the flexibility and the luxury to be choosy. That’s just the truth of it.”

The key words there: "If you give us the best chance to win."

Miami has the youngest team in the NFL with an average age of 25.18 years. A league-high 13 rookie draft picks and 12 undrafted rookie free agents festoon the roster. There is unpredictability with that, but promise, too. A potential for surprise.

There are notably weak position areas, such as wide receiver and safety. But there are also enough impact players to expect a surprisingly competitive team.

The QB Willis is one. So is running back De’Von Achane. So are three upside offensive linemen in center Aaron Brewer, left tackle Patrick Paul and No. 1 draft pick Kadyn Proctor, who’ll slot at left guard. Defensively I like end Chop Robinson, tackles Zach Sieler and Jordan Phillips, rookie cornerback Chris Johnson, and of course Jordyn Brooks, the tackle-machine linebacker whose 3.2% missed-tackle rate last year was super-human.

“We’ve got to be careful overloading any young player, but we also have to get a feel for the players and see how much that they can handle,” Hafley said of the team’s youth. “Quickly we’ve seen that Chris [Johnson] is capable of handling multiple positions, so you’ll see him on the inside, you’ll see him on the outside. He’ll be doing both. [Kadyn] Proctor, you’ll see on one side right now. It’s case by case, and I think our job as coaches is to figure that out. Some guys, we’re still not sure yet. Practice has been limited. Team reps have been limited, and we’ll figure all that out now in training camp.”

There is one more reason to imagine the Fins may well be better than expected this season:

History.

This is only the fifth time in 61 franchise seasons since expansion year 1966 that Miami has begun a year with both a new head coach and a new general manager. And only the third time with a new coach, new GM and new quarterback. And look what’s happened, starting with the most recent instance:

— 2016: Coach Adam Gase and GM Chris Grier arrive, inherit a team that went 6-10, and, with returning QB Ryan Tannehill, finished 10-6 that first year.

— 2008: Coach Tony Sparano and GM Jeff Ireland are new, take over a team that went 1-15, and go 11-5. (Somehow, Sparano does not win coach of the year.) They fashion that turnaround with a new QB in Chad Pennington.

— 2005: Coach Nick Saban and GM Randy Mueller arrive, inherit a team that went 4-12, and go 9-7 with a new QB in journeyman Gus Frerotte.

— 1970: Shula arrives as both coach and GM, and inherits returning QB Bob Griese. He takes over a team that went 3-10-1, and goes 10-4.

Fairly small sample size, sure. But four previous new coach/new GM combos inherited teams that went a combined 14-47-1 the previous year, and finished their first season a combined 40-22. Can Hafley/Sullivan continue that trend in taking over a team that was 7-10 last year?

Shula obviously sustained that initial success. Saban might well have had he not skedaddled to Alabama. Sparano and Gase failed to live up to that first year. The Hafley/Sullivan challenge is to create and sustain a winning culture like the Fins haven’t had since Jimmy Johnson in the late ‘90s. Owner Stephen Ross, age 86, is counting on that in his last big swing at going out a winner.

What those four historical instances show is that there is little question a new regime arriving after needed change enjoys a palpable bump in excitement and hope. Hafley and Sullivan did a lot of winning in Green Bay. And a young team full of players trying to make their mark doesn’t care what the oddsmakers think.

Not saying these Dolphins will be a playoff team in Year 1 of the major reboot. But I’d bet on a competitive team that’s fun to cheer for, and a season a lot more interesting than most expect.

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