Troy Renck: Broncos' Sean Payton knows best. Just ask him.

PHOENIX — Sean Payton knows better than anyone what the Denver Broncos need.

Better than you, Broncos Country. And certainly better than me.

Six days into free agency, the Broncos were a team trying to win a fourth Super Bowl by staying within the family.

What standout running back did they sign?

Nobody.

What tight end did they pursue?

None.

What receiver were they going to pay to help Bo Nix?

Zip.

At headquarters, Payton and general manager George Paton had in the back of their minds that they could acquire Jaylen Waddle from the Miami Dolphins. By Sunday, March 15, it was basically done.

There would be no Ides of March reckoning.

Only Payton’s Eyes of March cackling.

“I saw the stories (about Broncos approach) and I didn’t believe it. It’s not, ‘Let’s run it back.’ I hate that term. Let’s understand that it is anything but that,” Payton said when I asked him about how his team will take the next step after the offseason moves. “When you win 11 of 13 one-score games (in the regular season and 12-3 overall), like you saw the flip in just one year in Kansas City (falling flat in one-score games). How do you improve your team? And the better you get, the harder it is to do. So you just weren’t patient enough for us to trade for Waddle. Your stories had been written.”

My column was. It was posted on Feb. 22 with the headline:“Who does former Oregon Duck Bo Nix need as a target for Broncos? Jaylen Waddle, of course.”

I told Payton this and prepared to duck, though it was impossible to move at the crowded breakfast table at the Arizona Biltmore.

“You had 10 other suggestions,” Payton scoffed, apparently confusing me with somebody else, perhaps my twin brother.

But ever helpful, he offered advice, always appreciated in the current media climate.

“Listen, you can come get one of these jobs,” Payton said, pointing to a room full of coaches. Five or six of those coaches will likely get fired within 10 months, leaving plenty of time to update my LinkedIn resume.

This is Payton. This is how we have come to know him. Sensitive to criticism, and for good reason. He is right a lot.

Will Waddle allow the Broncos to take the next step, while navigating a schedule tougher than the mountain stages of the Tour de France?

That is debatable. What is not are Payton and Paton’s results.

The Broncos increased their win total by three games in 2023, two in 2024 and five in 2025.

Improvement this season will be measured by two more victories at the end of the season. There is a strong chance Denver is better and goes 12-5 or 11-6.

The only thing that matters is crossing the finish line at SoFi Stadium in February.

Waddle represented the one big swing, the moment to become “opportunistically aggressive,” as co-owner Greg Penner put it Monday, with a playmaker who fits well in the locker room.

Otherwise, Payton is counting on continuity to pay dividends.

His approach is strategic and collegiate. This is the fourth year of his Broncos’ program, so he has upperclassmen who not only know the standard but set it.

“We recognize where we are at with Bo (Nix’s) contract and our team. The mistakes that two-thirds of the teams make is to try to win the day, win the draft day, win the hiring cycle day, win the free agency day, and we are interested in winning,” said Payton, who boasts 33 victories over the past three seasons, compared to the franchise’s 35 in the six years prior to his arrival.

“That’s why our fan base is extremely important to us, but we are going to do what we think is best for our team when this puzzle is finished at the end of June.”

The question is no longer if the Broncos did enough, but do they have enough talent on offense to stiff-arm the Bills, Ravens, Chargers and Patriots?

It helps that Nix remains ahead of schedule in his recovery. He will be cleared for the offseason program in May, and there is no indication that he will be forced to play any differently as a concession to ankle surgery.

Payton is convinced that Nix and the Broncos developing the clutch gene will continue to pay dividends. And there is also one way to avoid regressing to the mean in nail-biters: don’t play so many of them.

It was impossible to listen to Payton and not sense his confidence in next season’s offense.

So, he brought back tight end Adam Trautman, citing his blocking. And stuck with running back J.K. Dobbins, highlighting the person. The latter was a surprise because of Payton’s longstanding desire to have players available for practice and games.

“Dobbins was a priority, ahead of all others. Now that will anger people. We know that he has been injured, and we understand that the injuries haven’t been soft-tissue driven,” Payton admitted. “He is someone who is one of those compound multipliers, like he brings 10 others along with him in a positive light.”

Perhaps Payton felt like the public pressure would be less this offseason because of the Broncos’ breakthrough in 2025. He is experiencing what even two-time champion Mike Shanahan went through: the reservoir of goodwill siphons quickly when Super Bowl trophies are the expectation.

What the Broncos have done this offseason is not wrong, given Payton’s track record. But he has made himself the fulcrum of a fascinating debate: Did he value loyalty over production? Did the Broncos need another move?

The draft offers a chance, especially at running back and linebacker, to fix problems, upgrade positions and draw conclusions.

“Frenzy is what you don’t want. That it has to happen. Chaos. Ahh! It’s all marketing,” Payton said. “Study. Make the right decision. Stick with our plan. Tune out the noise.”

Love or loathe him — I enjoy his combative nature — Payton knows best. Until he doesn’t.

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