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NFL win total best bets: Will 49ers have Super Bowl hangover?

Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review-Journal on

Published in Football

LAS VEGAS — Nobody wants to deal with a demanding schedule while nursing a hangover.

But that’s the challenge facing the 49ers, who must navigate a difficult NFL slate this season while trying to recover from their 25-22 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the first Super Bowl in Las Vegas.

The Westgate SuperBook was one of several sportsbooks that posted NFL regular-season win totals following the league’s schedule release May 15. The 49ers are tied with the Chiefs for the highest total at 11 1/2. SuperBook NFL oddsmaker Ed Salmons made San Francisco a -145 favorite to finish under that number.

“The one team that we believe will go under their wins, and it has nothing to do with their talent level, is the 49ers,” Salmons said.

The main reason Salmons expects the 49ers to go under their win total is their schedule. They play three road games on short rest and four teams coming off their bye week. They also have 21 fewer days of rest than their opponents. That’s the biggest rest disadvantage in the last decade, according to SharpFootballAnalysis.com.

“They go back east five times and there are all kinds of disadvantages,” Salmons said. “The number is really high where they can go 11-6, win their division and go under their wins.

 

“And history has shown that teams that lose the Super Bowl seem to underachieve the next year. You have that hangover effect,” Salmons said.

The 49ers also lost to the Chiefs in the 2020 Super Bowl and went 6-10 the following season.

Salmons plans to bet on San Francisco to go under its total.

“I’m just waiting to find a good number,” Salmons said. “The public will play the Niners’ over. They’re such a popular public team.”

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