SEATTLE — CBS Sports college football writer Tom Fornelli follows the same formula after every head-coaching hire. Regardless of who’s doing the hiring, or who’s getting hired, he inserts each into a recycled two-sentence structure on social media.

[COACH] is a great hire for [SCHOOL]. I have no idea if it will work out.

Some relevant regional examples:

Jedd Fisch is a great hire for Washington. I have no idea if it will work out.

Kirby Moore is a great hire for Washington State. I have no idea if it will work out.

This isn’t just a long-running joke, nor is it solely fit for football. It’s a comment on the impossibility of predicting whether coaching hires will or won’t work. It’s a warning against haughtily grading hires as they happen. It’s an admission that best guesses are only that.

So, I’ll be honest. I have no idea if the Mariners’ next manager — reportedly Joe Espada or Jason Kanzler — will work out. They deserve to be judged on their performance, not their past.

I do know that list of finalists won’t inspire much excitement for Mariners fans.

Because back on Sept. 28, in the morose aftermath of a 76-86 slog, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto promised that “we will get the best candidate available. And I will say this selfishly: we just had a 76-win season, which is usually associated with a team that is not particularly exciting to be with. There’s not a single candidate in baseball that wouldn’t be excited to take over this job.”

But these are the best candidates available? These are the most exciting, innovative culture-builders the market could provide?

Espada, 51, was just fired after three seasons as the rival Houston Astros’ manager. Though Espada won two division titles in his three seasons, and he shouldn’t be blamed for the Astros’ aging and oft-injured roster, he went just 81-81 in 2026 and was swept in a pair of playoff series.

Kanzler, the Chicago Cubs’ 36-year-old director of player development, has no managerial experience at any level. And given that both Scott Servais and Dan Wilson had previously never served as skipper either, Dipoto said in September that MLB managerial experience “would be preferred.”

So Kanzler’s inclusion, specifically, seems curious.

I’m not declaring it can’t or won’t work. Before he became a World Series champion and the back-to-back NL Manager of the Year, Milwaukee’s 67-year-old Pat Murphy had never been a full-time MLB manager. And before he became the back-to-back AL Manager of the Year, Cleveland’s 41-year-old Stephen Vogt had coached for only a single season, as the Mariners’ bullpen and quality control coach in 2023. These were home-run hires that, off the bat, looked like infield flies.

While Vogt (who lives in Olympia, Wash.) and Torey Lovullo (a rumored option before returning to the Arizona Diamondbacks) would have been more popular picks, Espada and Kanzler can be great hires.

Provided they maximize the pieces in place.

“It’s roughly the same group of players (that nearly won a pennant in 2025),” Dipoto said in September. “We have six major-league starters who are all homegrown and under the age of 30. We have the runner-up for MVP from a year ago (Cal Raleigh) who’s our homegrown catcher. We have the center fielder (Julio Rodríguez), who’s a homegrown player. He’s 25 years old, has been top 10 in the MVP (voting) three times in the last five years.

“Colt Emerson. Cole Young. Brendan Donovan. Dom Canzone. Josh Naylor. This is a really talented roster, and none of those guys are outside the prime years of their careers. There’s no reason why we shouldn’t be able to reset, look ourselves in the mirror.”

I can’t tell you whether it’ll be Espada or Kanzler looking in the Mariners’ mirror.

But I can tell you the challenge is clear.

The Mariners’ next manager must reconstruct a culture of accountability that corroded in 2026. Despite the aforementioned “really talented roster,” Seattle sat 19th in ERA (4.20), 27th in OPS (.693), 28th in runs (664), 29th in batting average (.233) and dead last in defensive outs above average (minus-58).

To put it more plainly: Seattle didn’t excel in any area. The Mariners didn’t hit with runners in scoring position. They didn’t hit left-handed pitching, period. They didn’t play clean, dependable defense. They didn’t win on the road.

Their starting rotation and bullpen both wilted in the second half. Their stars — Raleigh, Rodríguez, Andrés Muñoz, Bryan Woo, etc. — regressed. Their identity evaporated when the wins didn’t come.

Ironically, they didn’t consistently beat anyone … other than Espada’s Astros.

The Mariners’ next manager must unlock Raleigh and Rodríguez. He must propel Seattle’s intriguing young players — Young, Emerson, Lázaro Montes, Michael Arroyo, Kade Anderson, etc. — into the stratosphere. He must cultivate a culture of accountability and a commitment to defense and fundamentals. He must reignite a previously reliable rotation and manage the bullpen and bench better than Wilson did. He must succeed in an organization with baseball’s biggest pitcher’s park and a middling, often maddening spending ceiling.

That’s a lot to ask, and the list of finalists is not outwardly exciting. But don’t dismiss Espada or Kanzler before they arrive.

I have no idea if it will work out.

But for Dipoto, who will soon have more managers (three) than playoff appearances (two) in 11 seasons in Seattle, it better.

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