PITTSBURGH — Like many in baseball, Paul Skenes has spent plenty of time lately trying to figure out why his fastball velocity has decreased and why he’s been less effective this season.

As he’s looked back, he’s keyed in on one thing — the World Baseball Classic.

“There are a lot of other factors, so I don’t want to put everything on that,” the star Pirates pitcher told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette over the weekend. “But I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit.”

When Skenes was first asked about his decreased velocity this season, he’d said it was intentional. As the season continued, he began to admit he wasn’t sure where it went. The answer is somewhere in between, he says now.

But the WBC probably played a part, Skenes said.

“Usually, that time of year, you’re kind of ramping up and it’s a little bit slow. You can kind of get onto the slope and find your body,” he said. “One live [batting practice], you’re topping at 97 [mph], and then the next you’re 98, 99. And that wasn’t the case this year. ... Looking back, I don’t think that really helped.”

The reigning National League Cy Young winner’s 3.91 ERA this season is nearly two full runs higher than last year’s 1.97. His fastball velocity is down. His command is off.

With the Pirates officially eliminated from postseason contention, it’s hard not to wonder what this season could have been if Skenes performed as he had in his first two seasons.

Skenes thinks he’s moving better now than he has at any point this season, even if his fastball velocity remains down. But he saw his body change quickly from his first live at-bats in February to spring training to his two appearances for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.

Those changes were faster than it would have been in a typical season.

“When you go outing to outing, you don’t really see the big picture sometimes. And I think looking back, I can kind of see it now,” he said. “Because early in the season, you can get away with stuff mechanically or you might not be moving perfectly, but you’re fresh and the velo is there because you’re feeling good."

He added: “Can’t get away with that in July and August and September.”

As a rookie in 2024, he’d averaged 98.8 mph on his fastball. Last year, that number dipped to 98.1 mph. He hadn’t necessarily been targeting an average of 98 this season, although “averaging 98 is freaking cool,” he said. But he would have been fine somewhere around 97.5 mph. This year, it’s 96.8 mph.

It’s not like he went into 2026 trying to throw less hard, he said. He just wasn’t training specifically for velocity.

“I didn’t really have a number on it,” Skenes said. “But I would have liked to throw harder than I have this year.”

Skenes has made plenty of mechanical tweaks throughout the year, as he did in the previous two years, in attempts to find better results.

One of the more obvious changes was a shift from his typical crossfire delivery to one where he steps directly toward the plate, then back to the more rotational, crossfire delivery. The move occurred after a shortened start in Miami in August, when he had eight days between appearances.

Asked if shifting his front foot was something that he had intentionally done, Skenes said it was probably the byproduct of some other tweak he’d made.

“Stuff changes over the course of the season and from outing to outing,” Skenes said. “With that said, there’s been a lot more changes, outing to outing this year, that I kind of just don’t have an answer for body-wise.”

That was true even early in the year, when Skenes rebounded from his career-worst opening day to post a 1.09 ERA in his next eight starts.

“Even then, I didn’t feel like I had my delivery,” Skenes said. “It’s just weird. It’s easier to kind of put your finger on it after the fact than it is in the moment.”

In prior years, mechanical shifts had led to improved velocity whenever he’d targeted a boost, Skenes said. Yet through every mechanical adjustment this season, Skenes’ velocity never returned.

It climbed from the career-low 95.7 mph in Miami, getting back to 97.2 mph in his second start after the adjustment, but he averaged just 96.1 mph on Friday.

It made for a different pitcher.

“Unfortunately, it’s probably going to take an offseason to get it back,” Skenes said. “Yeah, it’s just tough.”

Those mechanical shifts and offseason goals are why Skenes doesn’t place all of the blame for his season on the WBC, although he also believes it played a role.

He said he doesn’t regret doing it. But he has felt the impact of that tournament in March.

“It definitely affected the year,” Skenes said. “Unfortunately, I don’t think I’m the only one.”

He paused, staring at the floor in silence for nine seconds.

“Yeah, I don’t know,” Skenes said.

Ten more seconds passed.

“Definitely didn’t make things easier.”

I’ll be watching …

The Brandon Lowe show. Lowe has four homers so far through the first six games of the homestand, putting the finishing touches on what has been a stellar season.

His 33 homers are the most by a Pirate since Josh Bell’s 37 in 2019, while his 19 homers at PNC Park are the most in one season in the ballpark’s history. He’s also trying to reach 100 RBIs, one over his current high of 99.

This doesn’t have to be a “one-year thing” for the pending free agent. But if it is, it’s certainly worth enjoying the final week.

Progress with ABS. On Thursday, the Pirates went 6 for 7 on challenges against home plate ump James Hoye. The number was mostly a reflection of Hoye’s bad game, but it did show the Pirates have improved on ABS challenges from their league-worst start to the year.

They’re now winning 51% of defensive challenges (second-worst) and 45% of offensive challenges (24th), up from 45 and 41%, respectively, on June 5. It’s something everyone can work on in the offseason, but there has been some progress.

Mason Montgomery’s scoreless streak. Montgomery set a Pirates record on Sunday as his streak reached 24 consecutive appearances, breaking a tie with Mark Melancon’s 23 in 2015.

While he’s been unhittable, he’s also shown signs of wear and tear, from decreased velocity on Sunday to slightly shakier command. While the Pirates are still treating every game as a must-win, it might be worth treating Montgomery with kid gloves for the final week to make sure he enters the offseason healthy.

They said it …

“Obviously, the goal was to try to finish strong and make the playoffs, but with the position we’re in, we want to set the tone. We want to come out and win every game. I don’t think anybody’s gonna give up. We’re gonna keep fighting and see what happens.” — Konnor Griffin

Prospect pictures

There’s three 2027 debuts I’m currently circling: Murf Gray, Mitch Jebb and Connor Wietgrefe.

Gray, a top-100 prospect, could be the Pirates’ third baseman of the future, although he’ll almost certainly start next year at Triple-A Indianapolis. The Pirates would be smart to address the position in free agency as they wait for Gray to develop.

Jebb made some swing changes, getting him back on the MLB radar. He’ll likely be added to the 40-man roster this offseason. His speed on the basepaths and in the outfield can be an asset for Pittsburgh.

Wietgrefe may be the most major league ready of the three, as the lefty has a 3.08 ERA in 16 starts at Triple-A. He probably could have helped the Pirates in September, although given the looming lockout and scant playoff odds, it was the right decision to delay adding him to the 40-man.

Surely others will debut, but it’ll be good to see what those three in particular can add to the Pirates’ current core.

On deck

Scenes to spoil

The Pirates won’t have any opportunity to knock an opponent out of the playoff hunt, as the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers have both been eliminated. The most meaningful game for an opponent comes on Saturday, as Justin Verlander is expected to start for the Tigers against the Pirates in the final start of his Hall of Fame career.

The push for .500

The Pirates have already clinched their best record since 2018, doing so with a 77th win on Saturday. Now, they have an opportunity to finish above .500 for the first time since then and for the fifth time since 1992.

Bottom of the ninth

Should how the Pirates finish determine how this season is viewed? In my opinion, no.

It’s worth shooting for a winning record, something that is somewhat significant for a franchise that hasn’t done it enough, but this year should be seen as a missed opportunity.

Whether you blame injuries, Marcell Ozuna, Skenes, struggles against lefties, the bullpen or anything else — and whether the Pirates finish 85-77 or 79-83 — it should be viewed as a “what if.”

On his weekly radio show Sunday, general manager Ben Cherington was asked to evaluate the Pirates’ season now that they are out of playoff contention.

“If you’re not playing games in October, then you haven’t met what you set out to do,” Cherington said. “I think we look at this team as clearly taking a step forward, [but] not a big enough one. [There’s] more work to do.”

He’s right that the team’s improved, and he’s right that there’s more to do, but playoffs weren’t just what the Pirates set out to do. They were what they had to do.

The Pirates might finish the year with a winning record, but in another year without October baseball, it’s a year of what could have been.

____

© 2026 the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Visit www.post-gazette.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.