Mike Vorel: Mariners must consider Alex Bregman, Tarik Skubal
Published in Baseball
SEATTLE — Aggressiveness is expensive.
But comfort may be more costly.
After the Seattle Mariners made MLB’s first offseason splash, bringing back first baseman Josh Naylor on a five-year deal worth $92.5 million, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto admitted on Nov. 18:
“We behaved in a way that’s a little different than we would normally behave. We would typically survey a market (and ask): ‘Where do we think he fits in in the grander scope?’ On this one, we just knew we wanted him back, so we were willing to do something uncomfortable very quickly.”
That word — comfort — encapsulates Seattle’s often frustrating offseason approach.
How often have the Mariners been willing to behave uncomfortably?
What has comfort ever afforded this 49-year-old franchise?
Certainly, Dipoto and Co. deserve credit for re-signing Naylor, a monumental move to fill the organization’s most glaring hole. They also deserve credit for buying big at the trade deadline — acquiring Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, Randy Arozarena and Luis Castillo in recent seasons. This core has been built on their ability to evaluate, draft and develop pitchers and young players such as Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez as well. When you consider that core, plus one of baseball’s best farm systems, Seattle is set up to contend for seasons to come.
But offering a fifth year for Naylor was both critical and uncomfortable.
With the winter meetings starting Sunday, why stop now?
It would be uncomfortable to drop a bag for Alex Bregman or Bo Bichette, two of baseball’s best free agents, both of whom would give Seattle the American League’s most lethal lineup. It would be uncomfortable to trade for a single season of Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, when doing so would likely cost three of their Top 10 prospects. It would be uncomfortable to land a legitimate high-leverage reliever to complement Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash and Co. It would be uncomfortable to make the kind of move the Mariners never make.
It would be uncomfortable to do any one of those things.
It would also be an exciting, unmistakable statement of intent. It would be a stake that Seattle drives into the dirt, declaring itself a World Series frontrunner. It would be a reward for Mariners fans who have paid and waited and pined for this moment, this decisiveness, for decades. It would sell tickets, drive attention and imbue belief. It would signal that the ALCS is no longer enough, that this city deserves a pennant and a parade.
It would require Mariners managing partner John Stanton to become uncomfortable, too.
On the heels of a historic season, with a record-setting catcher and an engaged fan base, what better time to double down — to be aggressive? To take a risky, expensive World Series swing?
Of course, the Mariners won’t do it.
But I wish they would.
Instead, they’ll follow a more familiar, prudent path. They’ll run from trades requiring premier prospects, refusing to risk a decade of possible playoff runs. They’ll decline to expand their budget; you’ve seen it all before. They’ll hope a healthy starting rotation can reclaim its caliber. They’ll re-sign Jorge Polanco or trade for someone like Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan. They’ll add a mid-tier reliever or two, and wager that Dominic Canzone and Victor Robles can combine to be a right-field force. They’ll afford opportunities to Cole Young, Colt Emerson and Ben Williamson. They’ll wait for the trade deadline and hope it’s all enough.
They’ll choose sustainability over an all-in alternative.
They might even win a World Series.
I’m not here to tell you that plan won’t work.
“We said it almost immediately after the season ended: the goal was to bring the group back in as complete a way as we could,” Dipoto said after signing Naylor. “We might not be able to do that entirely. But this is piece No. 1. We’d still like to add to our bullpen. We’d like to add that one more arm to the mix. And there’s always something out there we’ll stumble upon that is usually pretty interesting.
“We’re open to doing all those things because we want to keep getting better. We don’t want to fall eight [outs in Game 7 of the ALCS] short the next time.”
The problem with running it back? You don’t get better by standing still. Running back a roster that fell short of the World Series won’t necessarily deliver a different result.
P.T. Barnum — the showman and businessman of “Barnum & Bailey Circus” fame — is often attributed with the aphorism: “Comfort is the enemy of progress.”
It’s certainly possible that the prudent path leads to progress, too. It’s possible that the Mariners don’t have to puncture their future to propel their present. It’s possible that Raleigh keeps raking, Rodríguez remains an All-Star staple, incremental moves make big impacts and the rotation rebounds. It’s possible that internal improvement from ascending players such as Young, Emerson and Williamson pay big dividends.
Or, that the Mariners finish eight outs short — and one move away.
Consider this a plea to prove me wrong, to take the kind of swing we would never expect.
Who cares about comfort? There’s a World Series to be won.
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