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Trump is having a bad week. Will it matter in the election?

Noah Bierman, Los Angeles Times on

Published in Political News

But a poll released Wednesday had some data that might concern Trump's campaign. Six in 10 voters said the charges in the Manhattan case — considered the weakest of the four indictments against the former president — were either very serious or somewhat serious, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters.

Just under half of those polled said Trump did something illegal, while more than a quarter said it was unethical but not illegal.

Most voters said a conviction would not influence their vote. But a sizable minority — including 5% of Trump voters — said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he is found guilty.

That may not seem like much, and some of those voters could change their minds. But in an election that both sides expect to be close, even a relatively small number of lost votes could matter.

"Any slice of 2% to 3% of people who will be persuaded matters," said David Paleologos, a pollster and director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.

 

There's also an opportunity cost, as Trump is losing time to get out in front of swing-state voters.

"The only way a week like this is reversed is if he has a positive outcome in one of his trials," Paleologos said.

For Trump, a positive result could include not only an outright win but also a ruling by the Supreme Court that delays one or more of his trials until after the election, allowing him to further scuttle or quash the proceedings if he becomes president again.

"It's one thing to be tied up in court a week and then win," Paleologos said. "And it's another to have lost all of that time and lose."


©2024 Los Angeles Times. Visit at latimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

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