Can Trump finally win Miami-Dade County? An early poll highlights Democratic worries

Douglas Hanks and Max Greenwood, Miami Herald on

Published in Political News

Christian Ulvert, the Levine Cava campaign leader who commissioned the November poll that was so dismal for Biden, said he’s since commissioned a survey that shows Biden back on top.

“He’s rebounded in a big way,” Ulvert said, pointing to results from a two-day poll in late February that he hasn’t released. A one-page summary of that survey showed Biden at 55% and Trump at 35%, with the Democrat now winning independent voters and consolidating support among Black voters.

Ulvert, who advised Biden’s Florida operation in 2020, credited what would be a roughly 20-point swing by the president in his two recent polls to easing economic anxiety and support in Miami-Dade for Biden backing Israel’s approach to the conflict in Gaza. “He’s also the incumbent, so he’s more sensitive to circumstances.”

A spokesperson for Biden’s campaign did not respond to the Miami Herald’s request for comment on this story

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried rejected the notion that Biden is at risk of losing Miami-Dade, insisting that the county remains solidly blue.

She and other top party officials argued that the political winds in Florida are beginning to move in their favor, noting recent bright spots for Democrats: a victory in a special election for an Orlando-area state House seat in January and Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan’s win last year.


Miami-Dade, she said, was also moving in the right direction.

“Is there work to be done? Absolutely,” she said. “We fundamentally believe that we are still going to hold onto Miami-Dade in the ’24 election.”

Will Trump help Republicans win or lose the Miami-Dade sheriff race?

Factors beyond the top of the ticket, including political coalitions and possibly a ballot question on abortion, will influence the busy election season in Miami-Dade.


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