California poll reveals how third-party candidates could throw 2024 presidential race to Trump

David Lauter, Los Angeles Times on

Published in Political News

The only significant group among whom Haley currently leads is the small share of Republicans who plan to vote for Biden in the fall, the poll found.

Key group: Double disapprovers

With both Trump and Biden unpopular, key voters to watch are those who take a dim view of both.

In California and nationwide, that's close to 1 in 5 voters.

In 2016, the "double disapprover" group was similarly large and broke decisively in favor of Trump over Clinton. Double disapprovers were much less of a factor in 2020 because Biden was relatively popular.

So far in this election cycle, voters nationwide who dislike both candidates have fluctuated a lot in their preferences, according to an analysis of national polls by Charles Franklin at Wisconsin's Marquette University.


Marquette's numbers show that 37% of voters nationwide land solidly on Biden's side, with a favorable view of the president and an unfavorable view of Trump. On the other side, 42% have a favorable view of Trump and an unfavorable view of Biden.

In California, with its heavily Democratic electorate, 43% have a favorable view of Biden and an unfavorable view of Trump; 29% view Trump favorably and Biden unfavorably, the Berkeley IGS poll finds.

Almost no one likes both candidates, either nationally or in California, and a majority of voters consistently say they'd rather not face this rematch. But barring accident or illness that could befall either of the two elderly candidates, the rematch is what the country faces. Currently, Trump holds the edge. Biden can regain it, but as the California numbers show, he has a hill to climb.

The Berkeley IGS poll was conducted online in English and Spanish Feb. 22-27, among 6,536 California registered voters, including 1,053 Republicans likely to vote in the GOP presidential primary.

The results were weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so estimates of the margin of error may be imprecise; however, the results for the full registered voter sample have an estimated margin of error of 1.5 percentage points in either direction. The estimated margin of error for the sample of likely Republican primary voters is 3.5 points.

©2024 Los Angeles Times. Visit at latimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.


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