ArcaMax

Pennsylvania is arguably once again the most important state in the country in determining who the next president will be. Trump narrowly won it in 2016, but Biden narrowly won it in 2020.

If Biden wants to hold on to that narrow margin of victory, he cannot afford to lose one vote -- in particular, voters such as Rayfield, who is a reliable Democrat, lives in the Philly suburbs and does not espouse the social justice requirements demanded of Biden from the progressive left.

Yet Biden has lost him.

Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania, says the reality is that neither Trump nor Biden has much of a margin of error in this evenly divided state.

"It's hard to imagine large shifts in the electorate short of a historic event," Borick said. "Biden has a number of weak links in his coalition, and while many of his 2020 voters wouldn't flip to Trump, the lack of enthusiasm for Biden can translate into some voters taking a pass on the election or taking a flyer on a third-party candidate."

Rayfield isn't the only part of the Biden coalition that is detaching from the president, who won the state by a single percentage point in 2020. A large chunk of that support came from Black voters, 92% of whom chose Biden.

Muhlenberg's survey of voters in Pennsylvania in late December showed Biden only garnering the support of 52% of people of color while Trump was earning a solid 29%, an eye-popping number for a Republican presidential candidate.

The survey also showed that 65% of registered voters in Pennsylvania don't believe Biden deserves to be reelected.

Larry Ceisler, a Democratic Philadelphia-based public affairs professional, says Biden cannot afford to lose someone like Rayfield when the current president is facing his left flank saying they are not going to vote for Biden because Biden has not sided with the Palestinians in Gaza.

"It could be a real problem," said Ceisler.

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Copyright 2024 Creators Syndicate, Inc.