Nor'easter tracking closer to NYC than earlier predictions

Theresa Braine, New York Daily News on Sep 24, 2026

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NEW YORK — The storm threatening to wallop the Northeast strengthened offshore Thursday into a full-blown nor’easter that appeared increasingly likely to bring rain to the tri-state area beginning Friday, according to the latest National Weather Service predictions.

Late Thursday morning it seemed slated to skew east of New York City toward New England, but that began changing Thursday afternoon, NWS meteorologist James Connolly told the New York Daily News.

“We are going to be increasing the rainfall forecast,” Connolly said, noting that conditions, and thus predictions, were still evolving. “The track has drawn a little bit closer to us.”

“There continues to be track and intensity uncertainties with this system, especially into the weekend,” the National Weather Service said in a briefing late Thursday morning. “The eventual track and strength of the system will determine the magnitude of local wind and coastal flooding impacts.”

As of late Thursday morning, the prediction for New York City was for clouds and likely showers going into the weekend, with rain possible starting Friday after 2 p.m. and intensifying on Saturday. That time frame still held, Connolly said, but what would happen within that period, and where, was continuing to evolve.

“The storm is going to hit us,” he told the Daily News. “It’s just a matter of exactly how intense the winds are going to be, exactly how much rain is going to fall, where the heaviest rain bands are going to set up.”

While the storm will weaken Sunday, it will also stall out and linger over New York and environs, making conditions “very unsettled for a prolonged period,” Connolly said. “Anything outdoors will be affected by this.”

Northeastern New Jersey was expecting 1 to 2 inches of rain. New York City’s total was going to top an inch, an increase over earlier predictions, Connolly noted.

There was a chance that eastern Long Island could get pummeled with more than 2 inches of rain in six hours during the first part of Saturday night, depending on how the storm tracks, the NWS predicted. Central and eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut had a “marginal to slight” risk of excessive rainfall through Monday night. The same areas could be hit with wind gusts strong enough to down the occasional tree or power line, especially given that most trees still have their leaves, the NWS noted.

Either way, coastal flooding is a given. The storm will conspire with this weekend’s full moon to churn up “long-duration pounding surf” expected to cause “extensive beach erosion” from North Carolina all the way up to southern Maine, AccuWeather reported.

Eastern Long Island could be hit hard by those forces, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter told the outlet. The National Weather Service issued a coastal flood watch for southern Nassau County, with the potential for more watches or warnings as the storm’s path became clearer. The worst flooding was predicted to occur in the mid-Atlantic region during high tide through Friday, AccuWeather said.

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