Could a tropical depression form soon in the Gulf of Mexico? What the forecast says

Michelle Marchante, Miami Herald on

Published in Weather News

A disturbance forming in the Gulf of Mexico has a “medium” chance of turning into a tropical depression next week, forecasters say.

The National Hurricane Center expects the disturbance, described as a broad area of low pressure, will form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. And environmental conditions could be good enough for the system to gradually develop into a tropical depression sometime next week as it moves slowly west or west-northwest, forecasters say.

The system has a 50% chance of formation through the next seven days, according to the hurricane center’s Friday morning forecast.

As for the disturbance that doused South Florida with heavy rain this week, the system has left the state and is in the Atlantic ocean, just off the U.S. southeastern coast. While the disturbance on Friday is a “little better organized,” forecasters expect it will merge with a front over the western Atlantic this weekend.


The center is giving it a low 20% chance of formation through the next seven days.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions of the Florida peninsula through Saturday,” the hurricane center said.

The first storm name on the list for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Alberto.

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