Hurricane center says Caribbean system may stay disorganized

The National Hurricane Center said a system moving through the Caribbean has reduced chances it will grow into a tropical depression or storm.

As of 4 a.m., Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two was located about 260 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica moving northeast at 10 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph.

“The disturbance remains fairly disorganized this morning,” NHC forecasters said. “Convection continues to burst near the poorly defined center, although theoverall pattern remains ragged with convection displaced well to the northeast.”

Without a well-defined center and organization, the NHC has dialed back to 60% its chances it will form, but said there is a short window for it to develop, so the NHC continues to predict it will spin up into first a tropical depression and then into Tropical Storm Vince, but if it does, it would be a very short-lived system before becoming extratropical.

“Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the most significant hazard from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola,” forecasters said.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, parts of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks & Caicos.

“On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday,” forecasters said.

Jamaica could begin to feel stronger winds starting later Friday. The NHC said 5 to 10 inches of rain with some areas getting up to 16 inches could be felt in portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. Another 2 to 4 inches are expected in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks & Caicos.

“These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,” forecasters said.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has had 21 official storms, and if this were to organize would become the 22nd.

The hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.