2023 hurricane forecast: Get ready for a busy Pacific storm season, quieter Atlantic than recent years thanks to El Niño

Kelsey Ellis, Associate Professor of Geography, University of Tennessee and Nicholas Grondin, Recent PhD Graduate in Geography, University of Tennessee, The Conversation on May 25, 2023

Published in Science & Technology News

Forecasting the 2023 hurricane seasons is proving to be challenging for another reason: The Atlantic has abnormally warm sea surface temperatures this year, and that can power hurricanes – if storms are able to form.

Will the warm waters of the Atlantic overcome the unfavorable conditions brought by the El Niño? We’ll soon know.

The Pacific hurricane season started May 15, and the Atlantic season starts June 1, with both running through Nov. 30.

In its 2023 Atlantic hurricane outlook released in late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes. In the Eastern Pacific, NOAA forecasts 14 to 20 named storms, seven to 11 hurricanes and four to eight major hurricanes.

Surprisingly, the Atlantic has already seen its first storm of the year – a storm from January that was recently classified as a subtropical cyclone. This is a rare event. Our research shows that the median date of the first named tropical cyclone is May 30 in the Pacific and June 20 in the Atlantic, though Atlantic storms have been occurring, on average, earlier each year. We should expect the next named Atlantic and Pacific storms – named Arlene and Adrian, respectively – in the coming weeks.

This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. The Conversation has a variety of fascinating free newsletters.

Kelsey Ellis receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation.

Nicholas Grondin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.