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10 weeks free rent? Lackluster San Diego rental market has deals

Phillip Molnar, The San Diego Union-Tribune on

Published in Home and Consumer News

Average San Diego County, California, rents in the last week of October increased more than they have in nearly three years.

They still weren’t up by much, though.

On an annual basis, San Diego County rent was up 1.2%, said real estate tracker CoStar, to an average $2,587 a month. It’s a small but notable change, following slowed rent growth — and even a small decrease last year — since the start of 2024.

For context, average rents were up 11.3% year over year at the start of 2022. Since 2023, rents have risen 3.1%, a colossal shift for one of the most expensive rental markets in the nation.

A substantial increase in the number of new apartments, in San Diego and the nation, was cited by experts as the reason for the slowdown in rent growth. San Diego County built 6,927 apartments in 2025, which was the highest in 25 years of data.

Joshua Ohl, senior director of market analytics for CoStar, said part of the reasons rents have increased is landlords have offered heavy concessions — up to 10 weeks free rent and other deals — to get leases signed. He said the effective rent in San Diego County was more like $2,496 a month when you count all the concessions, which is down by $5 since the start of 2024.

Ohl said landlord concessions helped lower the overall San Diego County vacancy rate to around 5.6%. It hit a high of 6.2% at the end of June, which was the highest this century.

“Because we have so much supply, there is a lot of competition,” Ohl said. “There is a domino effect going down to mid-tier properties. We’re seeing concessions broadly across the market.”

One of the largest concessions is at AMLI Aero in Serra Mesa, which opened in September last year. It is offering up to 10 weeks free rent and two free parking spots for some leases. Average rent at the property, CoStar said, is $4,946 a month. The thinking, Ohl said, is it’s better to get a renter to sign a lease (even with a lot of concessions) than having no rent coming in from vacant units. And there’s also a strong chance a tenant will re-sign after the deal is over, Ohl said.

 

He added that it’s unlikely the region will see any large rent increases in the coming year because of heavy competition.

Apartment construction in San Diego County has continued, which could be a challenge for landlords who wish to raise rents. CoStar said 6,400 new apartments are expected to open by the end of this year and another 7,600 are under construction, although many of those aren’t expected to open until late 2027 or 2028.

The biggest project under construction is Riverwalk San Diego with 721 units, but it’s not expected to come on line until 2029. Chula Vista’s Enclave Montecito, with 600 units (roughly 100 of which are subsidized), is the biggest project set to open next year and the largest apartment building in that city’s history.

There’s also the mega development Midway Rising to consider, which developers hope will start construction next year. That project has plans for more than 4,000 apartments. However, no timeline is set for when those could open if the project gets final approval from the City Council next month.

San Diego housing analyst Gary London said if apartments are sitting empty, it opens the door for condo conversions. Laws governing converting condos can be strict but, in theory, he said pro-housing legislators may consider loosening rules if the situation continues.

“Clearly, we overbuilt rental inventory in key urban areas: downtown, (University City), Mission Valley and a few other places,” London said. “I see potential that a lot of these high-end rental projects might consider converting to condos.”

National rent growth has also been slow. Housing website Zumper in its October report said the median national rent for a one-bedroom was $1,519, up 0.5% in a year. The most expensive market was New York City with a $4,610 monthly median for a one-bedroom. San Diego ranked No. 12 in the website’s list of the 100 largest metro areas with a median monthly rent of $2,210. Zumper calculates rent using only the city and one- and two-bedrooms, instead of the entire county and all rental types like CoStar.


©2026 The San Diego Union-Tribune. Visit sandiegouniontribune.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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