Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows as Brazil race gets underway

Andrew Rosati and Gabriel Diniz Tavares, Bloomberg News on Aug 5, 2026

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s lead over Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed ahead of Brazil’s October election, a new poll found, suggesting the conservative challenger is gaining traction as the official campaign gets underway.

Lula would receive 44% of votes compared to Bolsonaro’s 39% in a runoff scenario, according to a Genial/Quaest survey published Wednesday. The president’s advantage narrowed to 5 percentage points from 8 points in July, though neither candidate’s support changed by more than the poll’s margin of error.

Bolsonaro secured his party’s presidential nomination last month despite a public family feud and allegations linking him to a banking scandal that ensnared much of Brazil’s political class. The senator has yet to announce his running mate. Although he pledged to choose a woman to bolster his support among female voters, centrist parties have twice blocked his preferred picks.

He has trailed Lula in polls since acknowledging in May that he sought funding from Daniel Vorcaro, the jailed former owner of Banco Master SA, for a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. While the younger Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing, a Supreme Court justice later authorized a police investigation into his ties to the disgraced banker.

While Lula seeks to bolster his reelection bid by providing economic stimulus, his campaign is bracing for political fallout from an investigation into one of the president’s sons over alleged influence peddling and corruption linked to dealings involving Health Ministry officials.

Quaest interviewed 2,004 people between July 31 and Aug. 3. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

—With assistance from Robert Jameson.