Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows in Brazil election poll

Andrew Rosati, Bloomberg News on Aug 3, 2026

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s advantage over right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed ahead of Brazil’s October election, a new poll found.

Lula would earn 46% to Bolsonaro’s 45% in a runoff scenario, according to the BTG Pactual/Nexus survey published Monday.

The leftist leader held a 4-point lead, 47% to 43% in the previous BTG/Nexus poll in late July. The changes to each of their vote shares were within the survey’s margin of error of 2 percentage points.

Lula has maintained larger advantages over Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in other recent surveys.

The 80-year-old incumbent led by 6 points, 49% to 43%, in an AtlasIntel poll released last week, while a Datafolha survey released in late July found him ahead by 5 points.

While Bolsonaro has secured the backing of right-wing conservative leaders abroad, such as Argentina’s Javier Milei, he is struggling to cement alliances with Brazil’s prominent centrist and center-right parties following his official campaign launch. He has yet to announce his running mate for the election.

Brazilians will vote Oct. 4 in a first round election, with a likely runoff three weeks later.

The BTG/Nexus poll interviewed 2,002 voters by telephone between July 31 and Aug. 2, and has a confidence interval of 95%.