Poll finds wording of Florida property tax amendment could set its fate

Ryan Gillespie, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 20, 2026

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A new poll released Monday shows the fate of the proposed constitutional amendment to roll back property taxes on primary homes could be determined by how it’s pitched to voters — and suggests certain arguments could imperil its passage.

The University of North Florida poll found that when voters were told that cities and counties would be required to fund only core services with remaining tax revenue, 61% of voters supported it — just above the needed 60% threshold needed for approval.

But when told in a separate question that it would create an $11.8 billion shortfall over two years for Florida’s cities and counties, support collapsed to 45%.

The proposed amendment will be on the Nov. 3 ballot. How it will be presented to voters on the ballot is being fought in court — and what kind of campaign will be run for and against the proposal is still not known.

Jackson Peel, the communications director for Save Our Services, No On 3, a political committee formed to oppose the plan, said the poll is evidence that the more voters learn about the much-discussed slashing of property taxes, the less they like it.

“I think that if Floridians know what it’s going to cost them — they’re going to vote no,” he said. “And we’re seeing that. This poll is evidence of that.”

Last month the Florida Legislature sent the proposal to the ballot, which would create a $150,000 homestead exemption in 2027 and a $250,000 exemption in 2028. The current exemption is $50,000. The referendum would also limit local spending to be on “core services” like public safety, public education, infrastructure and natural resource management.

The proposal came following a yearlong push by Gov. Ron DeSantis and his allies calling for Florida to ban property taxes on primary homes altogether. Ultimately, the legislature took a different path, carving out the portion of the tax bill that covers public schools but still delivering a proposal that would save homeowners thousands of dollars annually on taxes they pay to fund city and county services.

What the proposal lacks, at this point, is a plan for local governments reliant on that money to fund critical services, like police, fire, and roads, as well as amenities residents appreciate, such as libraries, parks, trails and holiday celebrations.

Some citities and counties are already posting information for residents on what might be cut. The City of Orlando last week imposed a hiring freeze as a hedge against a loss in tax collections.

The UNF poll suggests that the ballot language could be a path to its success or failure, said Sean Freeder, UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab Director.

“These numbers show how important the final ballot language will be in determining the outcome of this amendment,” said Dr. Freeder. “When told about the budget impact, likely voters decisively reject the amendment. Without that language, the subject of an ongoing lawsuit, it just barely exceeds the 60% threshold required for adoption.”

One lawsuit, filed last month by a pair of former local officials, contends the summary voters will see on the ballot is misleading and endorses the measure rather than explaining it. For instance, the summary states that the proposal “protects small businesses” despite not having a specific carve out protecting them.

A second suit, filed by former Republican State Sen. Jeff Brandes and Democratic Congressman Al Lawson argues the title planned to accompany the measure on the ballot, “Save Our Homes From Excessive Property Taxes,” is “politically loaded” as opposed to informative.

So far, at least two groups have formed in hopes of defeating Amendment 3 — but there doesn’t seem to be a truly organized campaign backing it. DeSantis said he’ll vote for the proposal, but wouldn’t campaign for it because it wasn’t the plan he proposed.

Peel said he believes the key for opponents will be to localize what cuts could look like in each community.

“I think that the more Floridians learn about what Amendment 3 will do to their communities, the more they do not like it,” Peel said. “I think that Floridians want these services that property taxes pay for.”

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