Hurricane center ups odds season's 1st tropical system could form in Gulf

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jun 15, 2026

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The National Hurricane Center on Monday increased its forecast chances a system could move into the Gulf and develop into the season’s first tropical depression or storm, and watches or warnings could be in store this week.

As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. EDT tropical outlook, the trough of low pressure was inland over northeastern Mexico producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

“Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland,” forecasters said. “However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.”

Whether or not it forms into a tropical cyclone, the NHC warned that southern and eastern Texas as well as portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days.

That could lead to “widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast.”

Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required Tuesday, the NHC stated.

The NHC gives it a 50% chance to develop in the next two days and 50% in the next seven.

If it spins up into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Arthur.

The next update is at 2 a.m. with the NHC making updates every six hours at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. for its tropical outlook report.

This is the first potential tropical system being tracked by the NHC in the Atlantic basin since the start of hurricane season.

The eastern Pacific has already been busy with three tropical storms, but so far the Atlantic basin has been quiet.

Hurricane season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for eight to 14 named storms, of which three to six would become hurricanes. Of those, one to three would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.

An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

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