WASHINGTON — Eight years ago, President Donald Trump’s mediocre job approval rating created a difficult national political environment for Republicans, who lost more than 40 seats in the House. But GOP senators bucked the midterm backlash and gained two seats. Could they do it again?

The April 20, 2018, edition of Inside Elections led with the following: “John Edwards’ ‘Two Americas’ speech failed to get him to the White House, but it’s an apt description of the fight for Congress in 2018. While Democrats are primed to take back the majority in the House, Republicans are in better shape in the Senate, thanks to the class of senators up this cycle.”

Even though Inside Elections doesn’t yet have a specific projected House outcome, Democrats are favored to win the majority based on the current political climate and the fact that they need a net gain of just three seats to win control.

Like 2018, the bar is higher in the Senate, where Democrats need a net gain of four seats. But there are a few key differences this year that put the GOP majority more at risk this fall than it was eight years ago.

The Trump factor

Trump is in a politically weaker position now compared with this time in 2018, when his job rating had taken a modest turn for the better. The president improved from a low of minus 20 points during his first year in office to minus 13 points in April 2018, according to G. Elliott Morris’ “Strength in Numbers” Substack.

The potentially bigger problem for Republicans is not just that Trump is unpopular, it’s that his standing isn’t improving, and it’s not clear where or when he’ll hit political bottom. Trump’s job approval rating has been steadily declining since June, according to Nate Silver’s national average. As of Monday, Trump was underwater on his job rating by 17 points (39.6% approval, 56.8% disapproval). When Senate Republicans gained two seats in November 2018, Trump’s job rating was upside down by 13 points.

Trump could probably improve his standing with a peaceful end to the war with Iran that results in lower gas prices and greater voter confidence in the strength of the economy. But there’s no real evidence that the situation in the Middle East is getting better or less complicated.

With an unpopular Trump in the Oval Office and at the center of attention, Democrats are consistently overperforming in special elections across the country, often at levels that will help them make the necessary headway in GOP territory necessary to win the Senate.

Landscaping

While the 2026 Senate map benefits the GOP, the landscape is not as good as it was in 2018, when Senate Republicans outperformed their House counterparts.

Eight years ago, Senate Democrats were at a dramatic and disproportionate disadvantage. They had to defend 24 seats, compared with just nine GOP-held seats. Democrats had to defend the class that came to power in the 2006 midterm blue wave and that was reelected during President Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection. Within that 2018 class were 10 Democratic senators in states Trump had won two years prior, and there was just one Republican senator up for reelection in a state that Hillary Clinton had carried in 2016.

This cycle’s class is different. Republicans are defending more seats overall (22 to Democrats’ 13) and have more seats that Inside Elections currently rates competitive (seven, compared with Democrats’ four). At this point in 2018, Democrats were defending 10 seats rated competitive, compared with just three vulnerable Republican seats.

Of the seven Toss-up Senate races in April 2018, a handful saw Democratic senators fighting for their political lives, including Bill Nelson of Florida, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia. Nelson, Donnelly, McCaskill and Heitkamp went on to lose reelection while Manchin held on by 3 points. Republicans lost both of their Toss-up races, including Dean Heller’s defeat in Nevada and Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona.

This time around, Senate Democrats are defending just two seats in states where Trump finished ahead in the previous presidential race — Georgia and Michigan. The races in New Hampshire and even Minnesota could become competitive, but it’s very hard to see Democrats losing Senate seats in states where Kamala Harris won, considering Trump’s diminished political state since 2024.

Democrats also have more offensive opportunities compared with eight years ago, though none of those races will be easy.

On paper, Democrats’ best takeover chance is Maine, a Harris-won state with a Republican senator. But to win, they’d need to knock off battle-tested incumbent Susan Collins. North Carolina has an open Senate seat, but Trump carried the state in all three of his elections and Democrats have only won one Senate race in the Tar Heel State this century (in 2008).

All the vulnerable Senate GOP seats can be found in states that Trump won handily. But Democrats got their preferred candidates in Ohio and Alaska. Iowa and Texas have unique circumstances but could get more interesting with a combination of primary outcomes and the political environment. The races in Nebraska and Montana have quirky dynamics with independent candidates on the ballot. And if the electoral landscape weakens further for Republicans, Senate races in Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina could potentially become more uncomfortable for the GOP.

Under the 2026 cycle’s current trajectory, it’s very unlikely we’ll see a split result like what happened in 2018, when Republicans lost dozens of House seats but gained a couple of Senate seats. This time, Democrats are likely to gain seats in both chambers, but it’s still not clear whether it will be enough for them to secure the Senate.

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