“This would make a typical year around 2036 warmer than all but the absolute warmest year experienced in Texas during 1895-2020,” Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

Average temperatures themselves don’t amount to weather or climate extremes.

However, changes in average temperatures could lead to changes in frequency of extreme temperatures, whether that be increasing warmer or decreasing colder weather, Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

Since 1950, the rate of temperature increase in Texas has been 0.29 per decade, and since 1975, the rate has been 0.62 degrees per decade. Historical data and climate models lead to a similar conclusion.

“If recent trends continue, as expected, a middle-of-the-road estimate of the overall rate of temperature increase in Texas would be about 0.6 °F per decade,” Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

Triple digit days more common by 2036

Texans are already used to dozens of days over 100 degrees every year, but it could be even more in the future.

The projected changes in average temperatures, implies changes in high or low temperatures as well, Nielsen-Gammon wrote. With that, extreme summer heat is likely to surpass past years by 2036.

“Triple-digit days are well on their way to being about four times as common by 2036 than they were in the 1970s and 1980s,” Nielsen-Gammon wrote.

Wildfire risk increasing after past events

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