China also wants to appoint its own dalai lama. But it is important to Tibetan Buddhists that they are in charge of the selection process.

Because of the threat from China, the 14th Dalai Lama has made a number of statements that would make it difficult for a Chinese-appointed 15th dalai lama to be seen as legitimate.

For example, he has stated that the institution of the dalai lama might not be needed anymore. However, he has also said it is up to the people if they want to preserve this aspect of Tibetan Buddhism and continue the dalai lama lineage. The Dalai Lama has indicated that he will decide, on turning 90 in four years’ time, whether he will be reborn.

Another option the Dalai Lama has proposed is announcing his next reincarnation before he dies. In this scenario, the Dalai Lama would transfer his spiritual realization to the successor. A third alternative Tenzin Gyatso has articulated is that if he dies outside of Tibet, and the Panchen Lama remains missing, his reincarnation would be located abroad, most likely in India. Experts believe the Chinese government’s search, however, would take place in Tibet, led by the Chinese-appointed panchen lama.

Finally, he has mentioned the possibility of being reborn as a woman – but he added in interviews in 2015 and 2019 that he would have to be a very beautiful woman. After this comment received widespread criticism in 2019, his office released a statement of apology and regret for the hurt he had caused.

The Dalai Lama is confident that no one would trust the Chinese government’s choice. The Tibetan people, as he has said, would never accept a Chinese-appointed dalai lama.

The U.S. government has expressed support for the Dalai Lama. In December 2020, the U.S. Senate passed the Tibetan Policy and Support Act, which recognizes the autonomy of the Tibetan people. The Biden administration reiterated in March 2021 that the Chinese government should have no role in the Dalai Lama’s succession.

No matter the outcome, I believe the process of finding the 15th Dalai Lama will certainly be different. It will likely take place outside of Tibet and under the watch of international media and a global Tibetan diaspora – with much at stake.

This is an updated version of an article originally published on July 3, 2019.

This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. Like this article? Subscribe to our weekly newsletter.

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Brooke Schedneck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.