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Diversity and moderation over tradition – why Democrats moved South Carolina to the start of the 2024 presidential campaign

Gibbs Knotts, Professor of Political Science and Dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, College of Charleston and Jordan Ragusa, Associate Professor and Associate Chair of Department of Political Science, College of Charleston, The Conversation on

Published in News & Features

First, and perhaps most obvious, the Democratic electorate in Iowa and New Hampshire is less than 5% Black. South Carolina’s Democratic primary electorate is far more diverse, at over 50% Black. Exit polls during the 2016 presidential primary elections also showed the drastic differences in the demographic makeup of South Carolina and Iowa.

Racial diversity is an important factor, given that Black voters are a critically important constituency in the modern Democratic Party. For example, 87% of Black women who are registered voters identify with the Democratic Party. Overall, 4 in 10 registered Democratic voters are nonwhite.

What’s more, South Carolina Democrats are ideologically moderate on both economic and social issues, which makes it is harder for extreme candidates to win the state’s primary. By comparison, Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire are more liberal than the average Democratic voter nationally.

For example, in 2020, CNN’s exit polls showed that 57% of Iowa’s Democratic caucus voters supported a government-run health insurance plan. Nationally, only 42% of Americans say they support such a plan, according to data from Gallup. In this respect, Iowa’s Democratic electorate is out of step with the mainstream.

South Carolina’s Democratic primary voters are much better aligned on this key issue, with 49% saying they support a government-run health care plan, according to the same CNN exit polls.

South Carolina’s ideological moderation and racial diversity were key to Biden’s comeback in the 2020 Democratic primary. After losing in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Biden won South Carolina with twice the vote of his nearest competitor, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Our analysis of results, dating back to 1980, shows that South Carolina has a strong record of picking winners in Democratic contests. Since 2004, when the state secured the first Democratic primary in the South, voters have backed the eventual nominee each time, with one exception. In the state’s lone miss in 2004, John Edwards of neighboring North Carolina won the South Carolina primary, but John Kerry went on to secure the party’s nomination.

 

The plan approved by the DNC on Feb. 4 removes caucus states from the early part of the process and puts Democrats on a different presidential nominating schedule from Republicans, who are maintaining the order of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Party leaders from New Hampshire and Iowa appealed, unsuccessfully, to the DNC to reconsider the plan before the final vote. The reputation of Iowa Democrats’ caucus system, of course, took a hit after results of the 2020 presidential contest were significantly delayed because of technical problems and reporting issues.

In our view, South Carolina’s first-in-nation position is well deserved. It’s not just about voters’ diversity and moderation on issues. The state’s open primary system permits people to participate in one primary or another, regardless of party affiliation. And its Saturday primaries make it easier for hourly workers to take part.

But there is also reason for South Carolina Democrats to exercise caution. As their counterparts in Iowa and New Hampshire rightly point out, hosting the first caucus or primary is a substantial endeavor for party leaders and citizens alike. Iowa’s inability to declare a winner for weeks after its caucus in 2020 is a cautionary tale.

This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. The Conversation is trustworthy news from experts, from an independent nonprofit. Try our free newsletters.

Read more:
How one man fought South Carolina Democrats to end whites-only primaries – and why that matters now

Black turnout in primaries might make Democrats think twice about swing voter strategy

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.


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