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Analysis: As Trump launches reelection bid, can he defy expectations again?

Jonathan Tamari, The Philadelphia Inquirer on

Published in News & Features

"My family left communism, socialism, and seeing what's going on right now is very disturbing," she said.

Trump and his allies argue that voters will reward the president for a strong economy, with the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years and rising wages. "The American dream is back, it's bigger and better and stronger than ever before," Trump boasted in Orlando.

He bragged about appointing conservative judges, challenging China on trade, and fighting undocumented immigration.

Yet polls also suggest that even many people happy with the economy don't like Trump, and Democrats argue his tax cuts and tariffs have hurt the working people who flocked to him in 2016.

The Democratic Super PAC Priorities USA on Monday launched digital ads in Florida blaming Trump for rising health insurance prices and for trying to eliminate protections for people with preexisting conditions.

Over the coming months, much will depend on Trump's opponent, just as it did in 2016, said Murray, the Monmouth pollster. The economy could also shape the results, as will a grueling campaign.


"In a normal presidency, he would not be considered to be in a good position," Murray said. "But this, as we know, is not a normal presidency."

(Staff writer Julia Terruso contributed to this report.)

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