What does Orange County's presidential primary data suggest about Biden and Trump's chances?

LOS ANGELES — More Orange County voters cast ballots for former President Donald Trump in the primary election than for President Joe Biden — but political experts say that doesn’t exactly spell trouble for the incumbent president.

Trump received the most votes in Orange County, 236,456, of the nearly 40 people on the presidential primary ballot, ahead of Biden only by about 18,500 votes.

But other factors contribute to success in a presidential general election — like higher turnout among youth, non-White groups and women. “A different universe of people” will show up in the general election, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of the Political Data Inc. firm.

“In the general, expect to see a lot more young voters, Latinos, a lot more renters, less affluent voters and increased turnout from Democrats and independents who lean Democratic,” he said.

To rely on the results of the primary alone to predict what will happen in the general election would be a misstep, said Jon Gould, dean of the UCI School of Social Ecology.

For one, Republican candidates in the primary were buoyed by higher voter turnout. In Orange County, Republican turnout for the presidential primary was 49%, more than 10% higher than Democratic turnout, which hovered around 36%. Statewide, Republican turnout was around 47%.

“We typically see that in primary elections because the people who are most likely to come out to vote in not very highly contested elections tend to be older, tend to be people who are really, really attached to the candidate, and Trump has, among a core group of supporters, a lot of excitement,” said Gould.

In November, however, more motivated Democratic voters could turn out, he predicted.

“It’s one thing to come out in a primary where it’s Biden versus nobody. It’s another thing to come out when it’s Biden versus the guy they hate with a passion,” Gould said.

But that’s not to say Orange County is necessarily becoming a blue county, said Gould. Data from the March 5 primary shows Orange County is still solidifying its more recent purple reputation.

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