What does Orange County's presidential primary data suggest about Biden and Trump's chances?

In the last midterm election, Orange County voters rejected Gov. Gavin Newsom and other Democrats on the state ballot, opting for Republican candidates for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, attorney general and insurance commissioner.

This year, voters chose ex-Dodger Steve Garvey, a GOP candidate for the open U.S. Senate seat as well as Republican Scott Baugh for the 47th congressional district.

Still, Orange County is very much purple with a blue tinge, numbers-wise. Of the six congressional districts that touch the county, four are represented by Democrats, and of the 16 state Assembly and Senate districts in Orange County, nine have elected Democrats. Registered Democrats in Orange County also outnumber registered Republicans, 37.4% to 33.6%.

That might partly explain why Trump has never come out on top in a general election in Orange County, which went for Hillary Clinton and Biden over Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively, after a Democratic presidential drought in the county that dated back to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.

“I think the way to read the data is that voters here just don’t like Trump,” said Gould. “He’s a flawed messenger for the Republican Party. When there is a more credible Republican candidate or when the Democrat brings out strong feelings against him, Republicans can win here. They did win here.”

By the time California’s primary election rolled around, the stage had already been largely set for a fall rematch between Biden and Trump.

Twelve Republican candidates were still on California GOP voters ballots when they went out in February, but only former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley remained in the race as the Republican challenger to Trump. Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, both once seen as potentially formidable candidates, had suspended their respective campaigns in January.

Haley made a last-minute pitch to voters in Southern California ahead of Super Tuesday — but Trump still far and away swept among Republican voters in Orange County and across the state.

Haley won only one precinct in Orange County — a small area in La Palma where just 12 total votes were cast.

Other precincts either went for Trump or Biden or resulted in ties.

“It’s entirely possible that this was largely driven by the calendar than anything else,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches politics at USC and has worked as a strategist on past presidential campaigns.

“It’s more than likely that those numbers wouldn’t have been quite so definitive had the primary taken place before the nominations were settled,” Schnur said.

It wasn’t so long ago that California moved up the date of its presidential primary election so that it could be more competitive.

The legislature decided in 2017 to bump it to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March, in other words: Super Tuesday, an election day when the greatest number of states hold primary contests.

Presidential primaries were held in June in 2016 and 2012 — and in February in 2008. They were held in March in 2004, 2000 and 1996; in 1992, it was in June.

When the state last moved the primary up to early March, the idea was twofold: increase voter turnout and ensure candidates were spending time campaigning for California voters.

“Candidates will not be able to ignore the largest, most diverse state in the nation as they seek our country’s highest office,” Alex Padilla, now a U.S. senator who was then California’s secretary of state, said at the time.