The El Niño warming, which covered a vast expanse of the equatorial Pacific and typically generates west-to-east upper-air winds that had a shearing effect on would-be tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin, is waning.

Its mirror-opposite, a La Niña cooling, is likely to develop in time for the peak hurricane season, says the government's Climate Prediction Center. La Niña tends to have dampening effects on the shearing winds.

In short, say hurricane forecasters, a cool Pacific and warm Atlantic could brew trouble for the Caribbean and the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts.

That's not a done deal. Concentrations of storm-repelling Saharan dust in the atmosphere have been "especially pronounced this year," said Klotzbach, and "that could at least slow down the start of the season," which begins officially on June 1.

Here is a summary of the outlooks by major services for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin:

1. AccuWeather: 20 to 25 named storms, 8 to 12 hurricanes, 4 to 7 major hurricanes

2. Colorado State University: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes

3. Weather Channel: 24 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes

4. Tropical Storm Risk: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes

5. Long-term average, according to the National Hurricane Center: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes

6. Records, according to Colorado State: 30 named storms (2020), 15 hurricanes (2005), 7 major hurricanes (2005)

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