Matt Calkins: Can USA soccer win the World Cup? Logic says no, but the vibes scream yes.

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times on Jun 22, 2026

Published in Soccer

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SEATTLE — The safe move is to take a breath and say “this is what was supposed to happen.”

The guarded thought is to understand that U.S. Soccer’s World Cup wins were akin to a 4 seed beating a 10 and a seven in an NCAA bracket.

Holding serve isn’t heroic. So maybe holding off on dreaming big is the smart play, right? Right???

Nah, screw that. Let’s win the whole damn thing.

American patriotism feels like it’s at its 10-year peak — and it’s all thanks to the fever this team is creating on the pitch. A 4-1 win over Paraguay last week, followed by a 2-0 victory over Australia Friday, and the U.S. suddenly has 26 new favorite people.

The streets of the Emerald City were rocking. Seattle Stadium was raucous. It was a singular event in this town, not just because of what U.S. Soccer was doing at the moment — but because of what it’s capable of doing in this tournament.

That triumph over Australia guaranteed that the States would win their group and be the higher seed in their opening knockout game in the round of 32. Should they win said game, they’ll be back in Seattle for the round of 16. Yes, they have a treacherous course in front of them, but that’s not stopping everyone from asking: Why not us(A)?

The skeptic’s response is pretty simple. The United States is the 13th-ranked soccer team in the world, and their wins came against No. 37 Paraguay and No. 26 Australia. The “slow your roll” crowd would say these two victories confirmed America’s place in the FIFA hierarchy, but did little to elevate it.

Former U.S. Soccer stars Tim Howard and Landon Donovan recently discussed the States’ chances of winning it all, and though Howard was impressed with what the team has done early, he played Timmy Truth-Bomb on the podcast.

“The U.S. unequivocally cannot win the World Cup,” Howard said. “The U.S. will have to play the greatest game they’ve ever played four times in a row. Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, finals. It is literally impossible for the U.S. to win the World Cup.”

Responded Donovan: “Well, I feel great now.”

Howard wasn’t trying to spit into the fanbase’s sundae. He was having an honest conversation with his friend while relishing the ride his countrymen are taking him on. And though Landon agreed that “it wasn’t likely” that the U.S. would win its first World Cup, he said “If they play the way they’re playing, they can absolutely compete against any team in this world.”

So how have they been playing? Probably the best in U.S. men’s national team history. The Paraguay win featured relentless pressure, with the U.S. spending four times more time in Paraguay’s final third of the field than Paraguay did in America’s. They also had 54 touches in the penalty area, which was the most for a team in a World Cup game since Spain in 2010.

Paraguay may not be a blue-blood fùtbol country, but it has shown flashes of great defense when beating Brazil and Argentina in the run-up to this World Cup. Not against the U.S., though, which tallied its highest goal total in World Cup history last week.

Friday, meanwhile, was a defensive master class for America. Yes, it controlled the ball 70% of the time in the first half — and got the benefit of an own goal for its opening score. But for a 45-minute stretch spanning the first and second half, the U.S. didn’t allow a shot.

Just as notable, the States were playing without their best player— attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic — who was out with a left calf injury. Since America has clinched its group victory, Pulisic will have the luxury of resting against Turkey on Thursday if needed.

Look, the U.S. is still 35-to-1 to win this thing, which is the 11th best odds in the tourney. But this is up from 50-to-1 when the World Cup started. Those two group-play wins certainly helped America surge, but overwhelming fan support doesn’t hurt.

As analyst Zlatan Ibrahimović said, “When you have this support, it’s difficult to beat you.”

Then he added: “If you didn’t believe before, I will repeat — start believing.”

This is a soccer country right now. The U.S. is playing the best, or at least close to the best it ever has, and it’s all happening on its home soil. Can the Americans win it?

Logic says “in your dreams.” Vibes say this could be a dream come true.

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