Sam Farmer's Week 9 NFL picks

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times on Nov 5, 2026

Published in Football

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Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 9 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted an 11-3 (.786) record. Through the first seven weeks of the season, he is 74-74. (.612).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 8 would have been 8-6 (.571). For the season, his record against the spread is 53-68 (.438).

All times are Pacific. The Steelers and Titans do not play this week.

Jaguars (5-2) at Ravens (4-4)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Jaguars by 9 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

With Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley hurt and newly acquired quarterback Jacoby Brissett on the way, the Ravens will start third-string quarterback, undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano. Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, is coming off a near-perfect passer rating against the Colts.

Pick: Jaguars 28, Ravens 13

Bengals (5-2) vs. Falcons (3-5)

Sunday, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 3. O/U: 52 1/2.

The Falcons had a great run defense — or seemed to — then got trampled by Tampa Bay. The Bengals needed overtime to beat one-win Tennessee, but Joe Burrow played great.

Pick: Bengals 28, Falcons 20

Rams (4-4) at Commanders (2-4-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Rams by 5 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Rams got on track offensively on their final drive of the first half, then rolled the Chargers. Myles Garrett might be back. Every game is a must-win and Washington isn't going to derail them.

Pick: Rams 28, Commanders 17

Cowboys (3-5) at Colts (2-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Cowboys by 5 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

Who could pick Dallas against anyone these days, especially after that meltdown against Arizona? Well, maybe against the Colts, who are parting out their team.

Pick: Cowboys 28, Colts 24

Jets (2-6) at Chiefs (5-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 9 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

This is a get-right game for the Chiefs, who have lost two in a row after a 5-0 start. The Jets are 1-5 in one-score games, so even if they can hang in there, their tendency is to watch the wheels come off.

Pick: Chiefs 30, Jets 17

Lions (5-2) at Dolphins (1-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Lions by 7. O/U: 50 1/2.

The Lions handed the Vikings their first loss and Jahmyr Gibbs ran wild. They have too many weapons for 1-6 Miami, which had a 13-3 halftime lead against New England before being outscored, 21-6.

Pick: Lions 35, Dolphins 16

Browns (5-3) at Saints (2-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 3. O/U: 43 1/2.

Whatever the Browns are doing to protect Deshaun Watson isn't working. He was sacked eight times against Pittsburgh. The Saints are coming off a bye, and they're playing teams close.

Pick: Saints 21, Browns 17

Giants (4-2-1) at Eagles (2-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Giants by 3. O/U: 39 1/2.

What happened to the Eagles? They have lost six in a row and are the NFL's only team to give up at least 100 yards rushing in every game. John Harbaugh is 15-3 after the bye.

Pick: Giants 24, Eagles 14

Broncos (6-2) at Panthers (3-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Broncos by 3. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Broncos are coming off a huge win over Kansas City. Not easy to fly across the country and face the rested Panthers, although Carolina can have some breakdowns on defense.

Pick: Broncos 24, Panthers 20

Texans (2-5) at Chargers (0-7)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Texans by 4 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Chargers are going to win a game at some point, and maybe this is the one. Weirdly, Houston's defense has been a huge disappointment. That said, the Texans have had their number, so …

Pick: Texans 23, Chargers 13

Packers (5-3) at Patriots (5-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 46 1/2.

Tom Brady is coming back to Foxborough to call this one, and Drake Maye put together a solid game against Miami. Jordan Love is playing at an elite level, and that could be enough.

Pick: Packers 24, Patriots 21

Raiders (4-4) at 49ers (6-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 9 1/2. O/U: 52 1/2.

The Raiders came back and beat the Jets to win for the first time in five weeks. But the 49ers are rested, just added DeForest Buckner and are a better team top to bottom.

Pick: 49ers 30, Raiders 21

Cardinals (3-5) at Seahawks (4-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 11 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Seahawks didn't look like themselves against Chicago and got upstaged at home. That isn't likely to happen against the Cardinals, who reminded us against Dallas that they don't give up.

Pick: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 20

Buccaneers (3-5) at Chicago (6-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Bears by 6 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Buccaneers have run for a combined 582 yards in two straight wins, but they will have to be more balanced to beat the Bears. Chicago added Jeffery Simmons on the defensive line.

Pick: Bears 27, Buccaneers 23

Bills (6-1) at Vikings (6-1)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Bills by 3. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Bills are not only playing well, but they're having fun doing it. Josh Allen looks both relaxed and deadly. Minnesota was the last undefeated team but will get a big test with this one.

Pick: Bills 28, Vikings 21