Andrew Callahan: If the Patriots do this against Aaron Rodgers, they will win on Sunday

FOXBORO, Mass. — You can say this for over-the-hill Aaron Rodgers.

The man can still protect a football.

Like a mama bear with an oblong cub.

Rodgers threw an interception 1.4% of the time last season to match his career mark, the lowest in NFL history among starting quarterbacks. All of Rodgers’ other 2025 passing stats were middling or worse during a playoff campaign for Pittsburgh.

Now, he’s back, and off to a 1-0 start under old pal and new Steelers coach Mike McCarthy. Already, the Patriots have tossed verbal bouquets at Rodgers via the media. How smart, talented and impressive he is, particularly at 42 years old.

Standard, mid-week white noise.

That is, with one exception.

“(I’m) definitely looking to get my first interception against Aaron Rodgers this week,” Pats safety Kevin Byard cracked Wednesday. “But no, I think it’s gonna be very fun. And really, I just want to win.”

Oddsmakers say the Patriots should win Sunday, slotting them as 4.5- or 5.5-point favorites, depending on your sportsbook of choice. History suggests the odds of a Rodgers interception are lower than a Steelers upset, meaning Byard might as well give up his hunt for a pick. Here’s what he can do instead.

Blitz.

Rodgers turns into a puddle against pressure, and has for years now. He owned the third-worst Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against the blitz last season, according to Next Gen Stats, ahead of only then rookie Cam Ward and current Vikings third-stringer J.J. McCarthy. He posted the shortest yards per pass attempt average and threw an inaccurate ball more often than when he wasn’t blitzed.

The key, of course, is generating pressure when blitzing, which Rodgers can often negate with his quick release.

Ask the Falcons, who got beat four of the six times they blitzed him last Sunday in a loss at Pittsburgh. Or the Patriots, who lost five of the eight snaps they blitzed him during a home loss last year. But the times Atlanta did affect Rodgers, he treated the ball like a hot potato. Overall, he went 4 of 11 for 47 yards and two sacks when under pressure in the opener, per Next Gen Stats.

That’s barely four yards per attempt and fewer than three yards per play, including those he lost on a couple sacks. Were it not for a late pick-six, Rodgers would have opened his season with a head-to-head loss to Cooper Rush, who is supposed to be captaining the Falcons’ scout team.

Here’s the rub for the Patriots: blitzing and generating a pass rush are synonymous until further notice. They produced a 50% pressure rate last week at Seattle when blitzing, but a 21% pressure rate when rushing four players or fewer. Milton Williams is their only consistently productive pass rusher, despite Christian Barmore’s reputation and Dre’Mont Jones’ six-pressure debut against the Seahawks.

Williams, like most of the Patriots’ defenders, knows Rodgers will frequently unload the ball before they can touch him. But closing on him should be enough to clinch a win, understanding that the way Rodgers has aged, pressure will trigger a throwaway, inaccurate pass or, ideally, a tipped ball.

“If you aren’t going to get there, you try to get your hands up. Volleyball is what we call it, to try to tip the ball,” Patriots linebacker Christian Elliss said. “And I mean, you’ve really got to work with the other guys blitzing to try to get somebody free.”

Williams came inches shy of deflecting the fourth-down pass that resulted in the Seahawks’ only touchdown last week. Had he batted the ball down, or out to a teammate, it’s hardly a stretch to suggest the Patriots would be 1-0.

“I’m tired of being close, man,” Williams said Wednesday.

So, too, are the Patriots.

Rodgers’ pocket will be the ultimate battleground Sunday, and well-executed blitzes will be the Pats’ greatest weapon against him, one of the best quarterbacks to ever play. Byard raised another idea, holding coverage disguise longer than usual, to force Rodgers to hold onto the ball longer than he wants after the snap.

“He’s going to use the entire the play-clock on first, second down, even on third down. So I think it’s just knowing, like, OK, if he’s going to use the play clock, maybe we can hold our disguise when the play clock is at 20 seconds or 15 seconds, and maybe try at the last minute to run to our (assignments) or something like that,” Byard said. “And sometimes he’s going to catch us.”

Yet the risk, at this stage of Rodgers’ career, is more than worth the reward.

Last year, the Patriots held Rodgers to 14 points until he beat the blitz with a game-winning, 17-yard touchdown pass with 2:16 left in an eventual Steelers’ win at New England. If they get there Sunday, that result should flip.

“We want to be able to get him off his spot. You know, I think in any quarterback in this league, especially a future Hall of Famer, if you just let him feel comfortable back there in the pocket, he’s going to dice you up. That’s just kind of how it is,” Byard said. “So if we can get him off his spot, get him off his first read, get him to his second or third, and some of these checkdowns, I think we’ll have plenty of success.”