Greg Cote's Christmas Day NFL picks

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on Dec 23, 2025

Published in Football

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Merry Christmas to Christians out there and also to those who just love the holiday for the gift-giving and mostly getting. The NFL has put three lumps of coal in your stocking. Thursday’s three division games probably seemed sure-fire when first scheduled but have turned out to be late-season duds.

Cowboys-Commanders gifts us two hugely disappointing teams eliminated from playoff contention. Lions-Vikings presents one team eliminated and the other living on an unlikely prayer. And Broncos-Chiefs finds Kansas City saying goodbye to its dynasty — also to its home state — while Denver at least gives us one certain playoff team out of six.

The NFL with its Christmas tripleheader instituted in 2022 has stolen the holiday that used to belong to the NBA, although given this particular football troika you’d be forgiven for sneaking a peak or two at hoops.

Quick note: Good luck talking “streaming services” with Grandpappy as you explain that none of the three Christmas Day football games is on a “regular channel.” Now on to the picks!

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 17 THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY PICKS

COWBOYS (6-8-1) at COMMANDERS (4-11)

Line: DAL by 7.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 34-17.

TV: 1 p.m. Thursday, Netflix.

I want Jerry Jones and Dan Quinn arm-wrestling at halftime to see who’s more disappointed by this season as both teams continue a rebuild now in its 30th year or so. Two lousy defenses but only one good offense tells the story of this early of three games. Dallas can score lots as long as Dak Prescott is playing ... and he is. Washington’s QB situation by contrast is a dumpster fire. Jayden Daniels is shut down, backup Marcus Mariota is very iffy to play, and that means a dangerously likely start for Josh Johnson, who at 39 is playing for his 173rd NFL team. Cowboys have been bad on road, but Comms are just as bad at home. Dallas has won nine of past 12 roadies in this series, and Washington has lost five straight games at home. Division rivalries can skew close, but this one doesn’t feel like that.

LIONS (8-7) at VIKINGS (7-8)

Line: DET by 6.

Cote’s pick: DET, 27-20.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Thursday, Netflix.

The middle of three holiday games finds Minnesota out of contention and relegated to a spoiler role here — although Detroit’s playoff hopes are pretty much spoiled and rotten as is. Analytics per ESPN give Lions a 7% shot; they must win out and then bank on a half-ton of luck with other results. At least that’s some incentive. So is Lions’ narrow loss to Vikings in November after previously winning five straight in series. Purples QB J.J. McCarthy and Motown WR Amon-Ra St. Brown both banged up and iffy to play on a short week muddies the pick here. Both teams have underachieved; Dan Campbell needs a refresher course in Kneecap Biting. Give me Lions with a glimmer of playoff hope for the win, but the home rival hot-too-late with three straight wins keeping it inside the betting number.

BRONCOS (12-3) at CHIEFS (6-9)

Line: DEN by 13 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DEN, 24-10.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Thursday, Prime Video.

Our tripleheader’s prime-time finish gives us, in Denver, likely the only playoff team of six competing on Christmas. But Broncos still have much to win for, with the AFC West title in play and more important the No. 1 seed and first-round bye to try to wrest from New England. As for Kansas City, it was hard to envision the nightmare (and indignity) of a 6-9 season that would end with Patrick Mahomes out after knee surgery. Andy Reid’s kingdom has collapsed around him. And now the off-field drama of the franchise’s plan to move across the border from Missouri into Kansas — only a three-mile hop but surely a gut-punch to many Missourians. With Mahomes and backup Gardner Minshew both out, the Chiefs QB will be a person named “Chris Oladokun.” Chiefs have owned this rivalry, on a 17-3 run and winning nine straight at home. But oh my how times have changed!

(Betting line courtesy DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon.)