MIAMI — Nobody inside team’s facility wants to say it out loud. Few even want to address it. They pretend it’s not happening and make excuses for it. But the numbers tell the story of a massive regression.

Tua Tagaovailoa is having the worst season of his NFL career heading into Sunday’s road game against the New York Jets.

Yes, we’re talking worse than his rookie season, when the 2020 first-round pick surprisingly replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Dolphins’ starter seven games into the 2020, pandemic-plagued season and managed to win six of the nine games he started months after having a serious hip injury surgically repaired.

This season Tagovailoa, who is one of the NFL’s most accurate passers of all time, is missing on far too many throws.

He has thrown a ton of interceptions, and getting sacked plenty because his movement skills have clearly declined.

“Just the efficiency for us offensively with me being able to distribute the ball needs to be better, and we need to get our guys in the flow,” Tagovailoa said this week, tackling the criticism of his latest performance head-on. “I’ve got to make the right decision for the team and for us to keep [the offense] on the field.

“I’ve got to be better.”

During the course of his six-year career, Tagovailoa, a 2023 Pro Bowl starter, has typically been one of the NFL’s efficient passers.

We’re talking a high completion rate, efficiency on third downs and in the red zone, which extends drives and scores touchdowns instead of field goals. And most importantly, he wasn’t a turnover-prone quarterback.

But that was then, and this is now. These days Tagovailoa looks like he has aged five years in 12 games.

Tagovailoa has a 96.2 passer rating for his career, which ranks him 17th best in NFL history if he keeps on that pace. But this season’s passer rating (85.9) is bringing that average down.

This season alone Tagovailoa’s had four of his 10 worst passer rating performances of his career.

Heading into Sunday’s game Tagovailoa has a worse passer rating than he produced in his rookie season (87.1).

He tied his career high with 14 interceptions, and is presently tied with Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith for most interceptions thrown this season.

The Dolphins offense ranks 25th in total yards (300.2 per game), and 24th in scoring (20.6 points per game), which is a far cry from what coach Mike McDaniel’s offense was doing in his first two seasons in Miami.

In 2024, despite not having Tagovailoa on the field for seven games because of his third documented concussion, and the hip injury that forced him to sit out the season’s final two games, the Dolphins averaged 325.4 yards per game and 20.3 points.

That was an offense with Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle and Tyler “Snoop” Huntley on the field as Tagovailoa’s replacement.

In Tagovailoa’s defense, Miami’s offense line was a hot mess most of this season, until getting its act together the past five games, which has been a catalyst for the recent winning streak.

But that’s partly what makes Tagovailoa’s struggles so noticeable, since the offensive line can’t be blamed on the lack of a run game, or the struggles with pass protection.

There is also one massive omission.

No offense, or quarterback is going to thrive in a season where they lose an All-Pro talent like Tyreek Hill, who sustained a season-ending knee injury in Week 4.

The Dolphins have also played a stretch of games without Darren Waller and Julian Hill, the team’s top two tight ends, who have each returned from injuries.

If we’re being honest, Tagovailoa’s arsenal of pass catchers might be one of the worst in the NFL, and he lacks chemistry with all but Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane.

However, Tagovailoa has usually found a way to raise the tide, making the players around him better.

This season’s performances hints that he might be the anchor weighing down South Florida’s NFL franchise, and the $54 million he’s guaranteed in 2026 doesn’t help matters.

At this point, if he doesn’t show some improvement, Tagovailoa and his deal will be a detractor, not a selling point for the franchise’s next general manager, and possibly the next head coach if owner Steve Ross decides to move on from McDaniel, who has consistently defended — if not made excuses for — Tagovailoa.

Earlier this season Tagovailoa acknowledged he no longer has the athleticism and mobility he had when he was a college standout at Alabama. He also pointed out that his footwork has been an issue all season, and has been laboring to fix the issues.

Offensive coordinator Frank Smith compares Tagovailoa’s footwork issues to a golfer’s swing.

“I’m not really a golfer, but I understand because I try. I wouldn’t say to be a good golfer you actually have to be able to control your shot all the time. So I want to say when you’re golfing and your shot is going, you don’t think about it. And then all of a sudden, it’s like a throw here or there, you start thinking about things,” Smith said.

According to Tagovailoa, the key to addressing those issues is getting back to the fundamentals, throwing on time, and being familiar with his targets and their tendencies.

“With the quarterback, and Tua specifically, it’s always coming back to fundamentals because that’s where [he] can improve to be [his] best,” Smith continued. “As we’ve shown throughout the last several years, when he’s operating [well], it’s an extremely high-level offense.”

The question the Dolphins must address in the final five games is whether Tagovailoa can get Miami there again? And if not, what’s next?

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