Ira Winderman: Wins up, seed similar, season sideways for Heat

Ira Winderman, South Florida Sun-Sentinel on Apr 12, 2026

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MIAMI — A better record. A similar play-in seed.

But at least less drama, so there’s that.

A year ago, when assessing a 37-45 season that delivered the Heat to the No. 10 and final play-in seed, the thought was of a net gain in escaping a half season of Jimmy Butler drama.

Now, when assessing a record assured of finishing on the plus side of .500, the question is if the gain is tangible, considering it will be another Hail Mary from the bottom of the play-in bracket.

Yes, more wins. But also more tanking teams to inflate the record.

From the outset, this was never championship or bust, but rather more a year to cleanse the stench of last season’s playoff-opening rout at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers, the most lopsided series loss in NBA postseason history.

And yet here the Heat stand, needing two wins without a loss in the play-in round just to make it back to the playoffs, just to get the opportunity to remove some of the 2025 postseason stink.

But if not the playoffs, then the sobering reality of just one playoff-game win over three seasons, after going 1-4 against the Boston Celtics in 2024 and 0-4 against the Cavaliers last year.

The last time the Heat went three seasons with just one playoff win? That would be the 2017 trip to the lottery, the 4-1 first-round loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in 2018 and then the 2019 trip back to the lottery.

As in before Bam Adebayo, before Tyler Herro, before any current member of the roster.

What followed was the move to Jimmy Butler, the drafting of Herro and the turnaround from lottery to NBA Finals.

So, yes, potentially more hopium, potentially to be sold in coming weeks as Giannis Antetokounmpo in the role of Butler and another quality pick in the middle of the first round, as Herro proved to be ahead of that 2019-20 season (which, of course, also was the bubble season, therefore significantly removed from anything close to NBA reality).

Yet to a man, those who endured last season and remained insist this has been better, even as the standings tell an all-too-familiar story.

They’ve seen an offense that can be a 140-threat on its best night.

A defense that can be smothering enough to have the Heat at an elite level for a large slice of the season.

A team capable of beating the elite, as evidenced by memorable nights against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets and even two wins apiece against the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, and, yes, Cavaliers.

To a man, they also believe the record should be better, the postseason seed higher.

So ultimately a better season than a year ago?

“We shall see,” guard Tyler Herro offered. “I want to wait until after, and then we can say.”

“I feel like this team is better,” center Bam Adebayo said. “If we played that team from last year, we would probably beat them by 30, because we couldn’t score over 90 points,”

“We’re better because we know what we can do,” forward Andrew Wiggins said. “We beat the best team in the West; we beat the best team in the East.”

“We’re better,” guard Davion Mitchell said. “But I feel like a lot of teams got better.”

Which ultimately crystalizes the season that has delivered the Heat to Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Atlanta Hawks at Kaseya Center.

By record, the Heat got better. And by seed, they got no worse.

But the Hawks made their move through subtle-yet-substantial personnel moves. The Toronto Raptors made their move through maturation. The Philadelphia 76ers made their move through health and the lottery.

And the Heat largely remained stagnant, Norman Powell in the end unable to endure at an All-Star level, health never allowing a roster to coalesce.

From a chemistry standpoint, the ultimate distraction was gone.

“There was a lot going on last year,” Adebayo said, without naming Butler. “Last year, it was just more like we didn’t know what was going to happen game to game.”

And yet this season, the same but different, with injuries and absences leaving the Heat with their standard roster intact for only eight games over these first 81.

A net gain in the standings.

But a net loss in terms of the hope of the desired standings goal.

Within a week it could be over.

If so, then even worse than a year ago, no matter the won-loss ledger.