PITTSBURGH — Pitt's 2025-26 season has not gone according to plan. At 9-16, the Panthers are staring at one of the worst records of Jeff Capel's tenure and there's no spinning that positively.

Eight years in, the overall resume remains uneven — three winning seasons, one NCAA Tournament appearance and too many stretches where progress has stalled instead of sustained.

But context matters with Capel and Pitt's men's basketball program, even if it doesn't excuse everything.

This roster was never built to be elite. It was built to be competitive. And almost immediately, it unraveled.

Dishon Jackson was supposed to anchor the middle. He never played a game. That forced Cam Corhen into the five full time, a role he can play but was not meant to shoulder alone.

Papa Kante went down for the season, pushing Kieran Mullen into minutes that took away a planned redshirt for the freshman big man.

Brandin Cummings dealt with an off-and-on injury that disrupted continuity and forced Capel to play Macari Moore to give starters rest, burning another redshirt in the process.

By January, Pitt wasn't evaluating its intended roster. It was managing availability.

That doesn't erase the larger picture under Capel. The Panthers went 10-12 in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. They followed it with an 11-21 campaign. The NCAA Tournament run in 2022-23 briefly felt like a turning point. In 2023-24, Pitt rode the scoring punch of Blake Hinson and Bub Carrington. Last year, Pitt finished 17-15 — technically winning, but not transformative. Now they are 9-16.

The inconsistency is real. So is the frustration.

If a coaching change were coming, it likely would have happened already — after Pitt's loss to Quinnipiac, the Hofstra game or after the 100-59 loss to Louisville on Jan. 17. It didn't. Financial realities matter. Pitt is not operating with unlimited flexibility and coaching buyouts are expensive. Athletic director Allen Greene is unlikely to make a reactionary move without both financial space and a clear alternative plan.

Instead, the program appears set to move forward with what it has, and that includes a highly ranked incoming class and one of the more intriguing freshmen in the ACC.

Roman Siulepa has been the clearest bright spot in a difficult season. Just this week, he dropped 19 points against Duke and Cameron Boozer — a projected ACC Player of the Year and future NBA lottery pick — while also serving as Boozer's primary defender, holding him to 17 despite a 23-point average.

Siulepa has looked comfortable against high-level competition. He hasn't just flashed. He's produced.

In a season defined nationally by impact freshmen, Pitt has one of its own.

But the next six games carry significance beyond this season's record.

With postseason hopes effectively gone, the focus has to shift from salvaging this year to shaping the next one. Development is no longer secondary, it should be the priority. Siulepa, Moore, Kieran Mullen and Omari Witherspoon need meaningful, mistake-tolerant minutes.

If they are going to stay at Pitt and help the Panthers next season, this stretch becomes foundational.

The question now is what comes next.

Siulepa's situation is slightly different from most breakout freshmen. As an international player, he cannot capitalize on NIL opportunities the same way domestic players can. That removes the most obvious transfer incentive. But the modern game still operates on movement. Playing time, development, exposure and competitive trajectory all factor into decisions.

If Pitt wants Siulepa to remain a centerpiece rather than a one-year highlight, the path forward is relatively clear.

The Panthers need to get older in key spots. An experienced center is not optional. The roster cannot again hinge on freshmen or positional compromises in the frontcourt. A legitimate point guard — one who can organize, create and relieve pressure — is just as critical. Relying heavily on first-year players is not a sustainable formula, even if the talent is promising.

And there is talent.

Pitt's 2024 recruiting class ranked ninth nationally and includes three four-star prospects in Anthony Felesi, Chase Foster and Jermal Jones. Combine that group with Siulepa and a developing Witherspoon and there is a foundation.

Foundation is the key word. Not solution. Not breakthrough. Foundation.

General manager Jay Kuntz was brought in to modernize roster construction, but he has not yet had the opportunity to fully shape a class from start to finish. This upcoming cycle may be his first true imprint on the program. How Pitt supplements its freshmen with portal additions will likely define whether next season looks like a reset or a repeat.

None of this guarantees success. It simply outlines the reality.

Capel's eight seasons have not produced consistent upward momentum. That fact won't change because of one strong freshman class. But this year's record also doesn't tell the full story of how the roster was built or how it fell apart. Injuries exposed the lack of depth and margin for error. They did not create every problem, but they accelerated the collapse.

The next step is not about promises. It's about competence.

Can Pitt build a roster with balance instead of relying on potential?

Can it add experience instead of hoping youth develops overnight?

Can it create a competitive environment compelling enough that a player like Siulepa sees long-term value in staying?

There are no shortcuts. There are also no illusions about where the program currently stands.

At 9-16, Pitt is not close to contending in the ACC. But it is not without pieces either. The difference between another lost season and a meaningful step forward may come down to health, portal precision and whether the program can turn a year of instability into something more stable.

The record reflects failure. The roster still offers possibilities.

What Pitt does with that possibility will determine whether 2025-26 was simply another entry in a frustrating stretch — or the low point before the beginning of something steadier.

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