Analysis: Could the Timberwolves actually trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo?

MINNEAPOLIS — NBA trade season kicked into high gear when ESPN Insider Shams Charania reported that the Milwaukee Bucks would begin listening to offers for former MVP forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Moreover, Charania and other NBA insiders excited Timberwolves fans on social media by reporting that the Wolves are one of the teams interested in acquiring Antetokounmpo, a two-time MVP who won an NBA title with Milwaukee in 2021. Among the other teams in the mix are the Miami Heat, New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors.

Almost immediately after the Wolves came up as suitors, some reports mentioned that they would be a “long shot,” as Sam Amick of the Athletic wrote, while another ESPN insider, Tim Bontemps, said on an emergency episode of the podcast “Hoop Collective” that he didn’t think Minnesota “has a path to getting something like this done.”

There’s a reason Bontemps would say that, and it’s one reason why I agree a deal for Antetokounmpo would be hard to pull off.

Here’s a look at some reasons, along with one or two ways how the Wolves could end up getting it done and pair Antetokounmpo with Anthony Edwards for the near future.

If a treasure trove of first-round picks is what the Bucks ultimately seek in any deal, the Wolves are likely out of the running before it gets started. Thanks to the trades for Rudy Gobert and Rob Dillingham, the Wolves don’t have any first-round picks to deal, under NBA rules, which says teams cannot trade first-round picks in consecutive years. All they have in terms of first-round draft capital to deal is swap rights on their 2028 pick.

Several teams, including those mentioned in acquiring Antetokounmpo, have much more first-round draft capital to deal straight up. The Bucks could command a lot of that draft capital from a desperate Golden State team trying to maximize the end of Stephen Curry’s career, and they could be making picks high in the lottery after Curry retires.

Any deal the Wolves have to offer Milwaukee would be based on the talent currently on the roster.

The lack of Wolves draft capital is one reason why it would be easier for the Wolves to throw more assets into a potential deal in the offseason than at the Feb. 5 trade deadline. Their 2026 pick, for instance, cannot be traded now. But once they make the pick, or if they make a draft-night trade, they can then deal that pick to the Bucks.

It’s scenarios like this that prompted one source to say that trades like one for Antetokounmpo, who makes a large chunk of the salary cap, are usually more likely to be executed in the offseason. That’s when teams have more assets, like unlocked draft picks, roster spots and cap space, to make deals happen.

I don’t see a way the Wolves would get a deal done without including Jaden McDaniels. League sources told the Star Tribune and previous reports have said that the Wolves consider McDaniels untouchable in trade talks, but these aren’t ordinary trade talks.

The Wolves fought hard to keep McDaniels out of the Gobert trade because President Tim Connelly viewed him as an important centerpiece to the organization. That hasn’t changed. But this is a chance to acquire one of the truly elite players in the NBA. Any deal the Wolves make is almost sure to include at least one or more other teams.

If the Bucks truly want draft picks and young players, the best asset the Wolves have to give them that is McDaniels, whom Milwaukee could flip to another team (potentially a team like Portland, which controls the Bucks’ first-round draft capital between 2028 and 2030) to give the Bucks the young players and assets they desire.

No other player on the Wolves roster could command as high a draft haul as McDaniels, given his age (25) and contract (two years into a five-year, $131 million deal).

Donte DiVincenzo and his contract ($12 million this season, $12.5 million next season) also could potentially become draft capital. As for other assets on the Wolves roster Milwaukee might want — Joan Beringer, Dillingham, Naz Reid, Julius Randle would all be on the table whether for the Bucks to keep or spin off in other deals. The Wolves would have to give up a lot.

Simply plugging in a deal of Randle, Reid and a pick swap into the ESPN trade machine and calling it day isn’t going to get this one done. Not when the other offers out there are going to be very competitive.

A big question is Antetokounmpo’s willingness to come to Minnesota.

ESPN insider Brian Windhorst said Antetokounmpo has interest in coming to the Wolves, and a star player’s wishes matter even in trade talks. If Antetokounmpo really wants to play in Minnesota, he could make that clear to other teams and that might get them to back off otherwise strong offers they could make for him because he might not choose to re-sign with them. (Antetokounmpo has a player option he can decline after the 2026-27 season.)

That could incentivize the Bucks to take Minnesota’s best offer if other teams back away. Now, other teams could call Antetokounmpo’s bluff in that scenario, or deal for him for the rest of this season and next season. (Think of what the Toronto Raptors did with Kawhi Leonard, and that ended up in a 2019 championship for them.)

But players like Antetokounmpo still hold leverage even in trade talks. That might be the best hope the Wolves would have to get a deal done.

Antetokounmpo has been hampered by calf injuries in recent seasons. Is this a move the Wolves are willing to make?

Connelly has been about bold moves since becoming team president. This would fit right in his pattern of moves. The main pathway to the Wolves acquiring a player of Antetokounmpo’s status is trades. It might be an opportunity too good to pass up, if they can make a deal good enough the Bucks and a potential third team would like.