SEATTLE — Do you trust Jerry Dipoto?

Because this hire is all on him.

On Sept. 28, Seattle’s president of baseball operations said as much, confirming he had “full autonomy” to hire another Mariners manager. He also said “if that person has major league managerial experience, that would be preferred,” after both Scott Servais and Dan Wilson didn’t.

Then he hired a 36-year-old former high-school science teacher who has never played or managed in the majors.

This is Dipoto, entering his 12th season in Seattle, swinging for the fences with an 0-2 count.

He could hit a homer. Or the third Mariners manager he’s hired could serve as his third strike.

But Jason Kanzler is the Mariners’ 22nd manager (19th full time), inheriting a talented yet irritatingly underperforming team. Most recently, he spent three seasons as the Chicago Cubs’ director of player development, after winning a World Series as an assistant with the Houston Astros in 2022.

Describing his Cubs role with Marquee Sports Network in September, he said: “I’m responsible for overseeing the entire minor league development apparatus. That includes all of the staff in the minor leagues, all of the players, overseeing their player plans and the development of those plans, the execution of those plans and how we adjust them when necessary.

“It’s some architecture. It’s a pretty large department, so there’s a lot of moving parts. A lot of my job revolves around supporting our staff and players to make every day the best they can be for their development.”

That last word — development — might matter most. Can Kanzler maximize the development of young players Colt Emerson, Michael Arroyo, Lázaro Montes, Kade Anderson, Ryan Sloan, etc.? Can he stabilize a roster that underperformed in almost every area — finishing 19th in MLB in team ERA (4.20), 27th in OPS (.693), 28th in runs (664), 29th in batting average (.233) and 30th in defensive outs above average (minus-58)? Can he help franchise centerpieces Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor rediscover the swagger? Can he reverse a fundamental defensive decay? Can he coexist with a pitching coach (Pete Woodworth) and hitting coach (C.J. Gillman) that were cemented before he was hired?

Can Kanzler recalibrate a culture — while Dipoto, chairman John Stanton, general manager Justin Hollander and so much of Seattle’s existing “architecture” remains in place?

“Our goal in this process was finding a manager with the ability to challenge all of us to improve,” Dipoto said in a statement Tuesday. “Jason has the mindset, expertise, communication skills, and intensity to help create a championship standard here in Seattle.”

What he doesn’t have is experience using platoons to maximize matchups at the plate. Or managing a bullpen with overworked arms. Or maintaining relationships and momentum in a six-month marathon. Or tweaking the batting order to snap a losing streak. Or saying the right words to relieve pressure from a slumping star. Or overcoming injuries and external pressure to peak at the right time in a pennant race.

In other words: Kanzler doesn’t have experience as an MLB manager. Which doesn’t mean this won’t work. It worked for Cleveland’s Stephen Vogt, the back-to-back American League Manager of the Year. It worked for Kevin Cash, who just won his second pennant with the perennially underfunded Tampa Bay Rays. Both first-time managers proved ready for the role.

(Heck, it worked for Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, who had never played in the NFL or held a head job on any level.)

But considering the Mariners’ streak of minimally experienced managers, and this core’s cracked and fragile contention window, this is a significant risk.

As former MLB catcher A.J. Pierzynski said on Foul Territory TV: “I thought for a team that’s supposed to be ready to win, you should hire a guy that’s ready to win, not a guy that needs to learn on the job.”

Dipoto’s future is directly tied to Kanzler’s success or failure.

Or at least, it should be.

It’s worth repeating that Dipoto has done plenty right. He’s drafted remarkably well, particularly starting pitchers. He’s cultivated two MVP candidates in Raleigh and Rodríguez, then signed them to extensions. He’s maneuvered a middling, limiting budget to acquire Naylor, Luis Castillo and Randy Arozarena at the trade deadline. He’s helped snap a two-plus decade franchise funk. He’s engineered a roster, following a “step-back,” that produced five consecutive winning seasons and an AL West title in 2025.

That’s not nothing. It’s also not enough.

Because, big picture, he’s had more managers (three) than playoff appearances (two). He’s had ample opportunities and almosts. He’s had more regrettable sound bites than Champagne showers. So whether Kanzler is an 0-2 whiff or a walk-off homer, Dipoto’s tenure better be tethered to this seismic swing.

“What is culture? It’s the standards you’re willing to uphold,” Dipoto said in September. “It’s the belief systems you share. It’s what you’re willing to tolerate.”

Mariners fans have had to tolerate too much for too long. They’ve tolerated a half-century of mediocrity as impenetrable as the marine layer permeating T-Mobile Park. They’ve tolerated decades between playoff appearances and division titles. They’ve tolerated Hall of Fame careers swept into the non-contending current.

I won’t condemn the Kanzler hire before he spends a game as the Mariners’ manager. But for this oft-afflicted fanbase, trust has been buried under tons of shoddy architecture.

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