Noah Hiles: The Pirates' starting rotation will ultimately determine how far they go

Noah Hiles, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on Jul 17, 2026

Published in Baseball

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We know the Pirates’ lineup is good. It’s scored the most runs in baseball.

We know the Pirates bullpen is bad. It’s the main reason they’re not currently holding a National League playoff spot.

As far as the starting rotation is concerned? The jury is still out. And the final verdict will ultimately determine the end result of this club’s 2026 season.

When it comes to the discourse on how this team can improve, most of it starts and ends with the bullpen. That makes sense. It’s the team’s clear area of weakness. The Pirates don’t have the internal solutions needed. If they do, we’ve yet to see any notable results.

That said, the bullpen shouldn’t be incredibly difficult to fix. Relief pitchers are the easiest thing to acquire via trade, both through sheer availability and overall price. While the idea of the Pirates going all in for a lights-out closer would be fun, a few less sexy moves would also get the job done.

The bullpen doesn’t need to be great. If it’s average, the Pirates will be a far better ballclub — especially if the starting rotation can pitch to its potential in the second half.

While the offense has dominated the bulk of the headlines so far — and deservedly so — this team is still built to win through starting pitching. That’s their trump card, even after an overall underwhelming first half.

Pitching was at the forefront when Ben Cherington started to build his version of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Every member of this rotation was once a top-100 prospect. Three of their five starters have made an All-Star team, two of them having received a nod this year.

The starting rotation is where their best player is found. Paul Skenes is an individual who, when at his best, cannot be topped. Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Jared Jones aren’t quite as dominant but also have ace potential when they bring their A-game.

But we haven’t seen much of anyone’s A-game on the mound this year.

There have been flashes but nothing more. And that has to change.

As the Pirates prepared for their three-game set in Cleveland coming out of the All-Star break, I felt as though the starting rotation had more questions than answers.

Will Mitch Keller ever snap out of this funk?

Can Chandler and Jones continue to consistently pitch past the fifth inning?

Are there going to be any workload restrictions for Ashcraft?

Is Skenes truly trending upward, or were his back-to-back wins a product of overwhelming run support?

If these concerns can’t be addressed, external help might be needed.

The starting rotation was the one area of the roster where the Pirates felt comfortable adding zero depth last offseason. They traded away Johan Oviedo and Mike Burrows to enhance the lineup. While neither departure has had a good season for his new club, that additional depth might’ve been nice to have right about now.

The Pirates don’t have much of a fallback plan. They have one additional starter who can be trusted, and it could be easily argued he helps their team more as a high-leverage reliever.

There’s been some talk about the Pirates considering the idea of adding another starter before the trade deadline. I wouldn’t be opposed to such a move, especially if it’s a left-hander who can consistently cover innings. But before that becomes a key priority, I’d like to give this group one more chance to prove it can handle business on its own.

If there’s one thing this rotation doesn’t lack, it’s confidence. The Pirates bet on this group to carry the load, something all five seemed to embrace. All offseason, we heard their intentions to “blow doors,” “punch tickets” and lead the charge for a team hungry to “win a lot of baseball games.”

They were a very good unit last year, one of the best in baseball. They’re more than capable of replicating their 2025 production in the second half of 2026. And if that can’t happen, then this team doesn’t deserve to reach the postseason.

The Pirates’ starting rotation is among the most talented in baseball. It’s time to see this group be as good as advertised — not just for a stretch but for the rest of 2026. Their success as a collective will influence how far this club goes — more than the lineup, more than the bullpen.

The ball is in their hands — literally.