Bill Madden: Brian Cashman's trade deadline decisions depend on Aaron Judge's rib
Published in Baseball
NEW YORK — We have arrived at the All-Star break and other than the Dodgers winning the National League West, there are no definitive conclusions to be made about the second half of the season, but instead a whole lot of nagging questions.
Let’s start with the Yankees. If Ryan McMahon really did revive their season with that grinding 12-pitch at bat against Yankee-killing Rays ace Drew Rasmussen last Thursday, what can Brian Cashman do to sufficiently fix the roster for a deep postseason run? Answer: It all depends on the imaging of Aaron Judge’s broken rib. “I don’t think it’s coming back clean,” Cashman said of the imaging that is scheduled during the break. “I think we’re anticipating that it’s showing the healing process.”
Still, even the best case scenario has Judge returning to the field in mid-to-late August and there remains considerable pessimism about him coming back at all this season. Same with Giancarlo Stanton. If that’s the case, if there is no certainty that Judge will be back, then they have to also conclude there’s no way they’re going to the World Series this year, and no point in being aggressive buyers at the trading deadline. But even if the imaging does provide them a ray of hope, Cashman is going have to thread a fine needle to fill the Yankees’ many needs — a right-handed hitting catcher, another back end reliever, a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, a contact-hitting bat — without sacrificing too much of his prospect capital on what are likely to be two-month rental players.
Prior to their 12-4 bust-out against the Rays Thursday that got them out of Tampa with a 2-2 series split against the first-place Rays, the Yankees had been 5-15 since June 18, the worst record in baseball with their 56 runs over that span also a major league worst, and Yankee fans were once again calling for Cashman’s and Aaron Boone’s heads. While their anger and frustration was understandable I do not agree with the charges that Cashman has done a bad job of roster building, especially after he’d essentially brought the same team back that’d won 94 games last year. What else had they wanted him to do?
Where I do hold Cashman accountable is for his seemingly blind loyalty to his No. 1 draft choices — and dual liabilities — Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells. In the case of the latter, it is going to be difficult to find a suitable (preferably right-handed) catcher on the trade market now, especially if the Twins decide they have a chance for a wild card and hold onto Ryan Jeffers. And I just wonder if Cashman will ever concede the Yankees are a better a team with Jose Caballero — by the way his best acquisition at last year’s trading deadline — at shortstop.
In terms of filling their needs, let’s make this clear: The Yankees are not — repeat not — going to be in on Tarik Skubal, who may not be available anyway with the Tigers starting to make a move in the very winnable AL Central. The price in prospects would be way too high and there’s no way they could afford to re-sign him and add another $200-$300 million pitcher to their payroll with the additional likelihood of a salary cap next year.
More likely, I see them making a play for the Giants’ Robbie Ray, a longtime Cashman favorite, who’s been the Giants’ most effective starter in his free agent walk year. And while they’re at it, why not see what it would take to get another two-month rental, Luis Arraez, the best contact hitter in baseball, who the Giants are also shopping? Mind you, even though we’re talking rentals here, the Giants can still probably command high-level prospects for a quality starting pitcher and a .318 lifetime hitter who can fill in at multiple positions.
As for the bullpen, before he goes about shopping (and possibly overpaying) for relievers elsewhere, it seems to me Cashman should first take the rest of the month to look at two of his own — Yovanny Cruz and Bradley Hanner — both of whom are having standout seasons at Triple-A Scranton. And while he’s at it, Cashman needs to admit his mistakes on last year’s failed trading deadline relief imports, Jake Bird and Camilo Doval, and get rid of them, one way or the other.
Meanwhile, on the other side of town there are two nagging questions about the Mets: (1) Is David Stearns — who unlike Cashman has done a terrible job of roster building — capable of getting decent returns at the trading deadline for Freddy Peralta, Luke Weaver, A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley or Bret Baty? Of that group, Weaver, having a career season, would seem to be in most demand, the relief pitching market being what it is. And (2) is it possible the Miami Marlins, they of the second lowest MLB payroll of $80.7 million (to the Mets’ $328.3M), are a much better team with a much brighter future than the Mets?
The second question is especially intriguing since the Marlins, who have made steady improvement (plus 17 games last year) since former Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough took over as their manager, have no Juan Soto/Francisco Lindor superstar-caliber players and a particularly shaky closer in Pete Fairbanks, but have nevertheless been on a 26-9 run since May 31 to surprisingly challenge the Braves and Phillies for supremacy of the NL East. Their best player, shortstop Otto Lopez, who is likely going to win the NL batting title, was previously cast off by the Blue Jays and Giants. Their other All-Star, lefty starter Max Meyer, was the third-overall pick in the 2020 draft, but has only this season broken through as the ace of their staff.
In another couple of weeks all these questions should be answered, but right now I’m not betting on the Yankees or Stearns and am withholding judgment on the Marlins until at least mid-August.
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