DETROIT — I don’t pretend to be an expert on baseball’s arbitration process or its attending loopholes and strategies. Far from it. But I’ve covered this stuff long enough to at least apply some logic and perspective to its proceedings.

Except there’s never been a case like the one Tigers ace Tarik Skubal could be presenting to the arbitration panel later this month or in early February. There’s never been a $19 million bid submitted by a team for a pitcher. There’s never been a $32 million bid submitted by a player. Thus, an arbitration panel has never had to adjudicate a $13 million salary gap.

This is where logic gets a little murky. Why would either side risk such an impactful decision to a neutral panel of three arbitrators? There are no compromises once it gets to a hearing. It’s a $13 million decision, winner take all.

That’s why I don’t think this will get to a hearing. It’s hard to imagine two adversaries as smart and methodically careful and calculating as Tigers president Scott Harris and Skubal’s agent Scott Boras letting this be settled outside their control.

For sure you have heard the term “file and trial” floated around the last couple of days. We in this industry love our buzzwords, especially when we don’t fully understand what’s going on.

Yes, the Tigers under Harris profess to being a file and trial team when it comes to arbitration. Generally, if they can’t reach an agreement before the deadline — which was Thursday — they go straight to trial without further negotiation.

But that is just an organizational preference. It’s not a set law. It’s a lot easier to espouse file and trial on deals that are generally well under $10 million. It seems bad business to stay stubborn to that preference when the stakes are as high as these.

To me, the massive gap in the exchanged salaries seems like an invitation for more negotiations. Even if an agreement before the trial would have to include an illusionary option for a second year, Boras would make sure it was a player option that wouldn’t keep Skubal from free agency after the season.

Dissing Skubal?

About the salary exchange. Both sides submitted their salary request independently to the league. This was done after a presumably long negotiation period prior to the deadline.

That the Tigers ultimately submitted an offer of $19 million doesn’t mean that was as high as their offer was during those negotiations. Almost certainly it was much higher, guessing probably closer to $25 million.

Boras, rightly, probably held out for something closer to $30 million.

When the talks broke off, the Tigers submitted a bid lower than they expect to pay and Boras submitted a bid higher than he might expect to get.

That’s a fundamental negotiating practice. But again, the resulting $13 million gap makes the risk of taking it to a hearing greater than it’s ever been in the history of this process.

Which, to my logic, begs for further negotiation between the two sides prior to the hearing.

But in no way is the Tigers’ $19 million bid an insult to Skubal or the team’s actual appraisal of his value. And Skubal is smart enough to understand that.

Arbitration is a comparison-based exercise. The panel will lean on precedents like the $19.75 million awarded to David Price in 2015, the highest award to a pitcher. Or like the $9.6 million pay increase Jacob deGrom was awarded in 2019, again, the highest raise given to a pitcher in arbitration.

And, because Skubal has accrued more than five years of service time, Boras can also present comparable peak pitcher salaries like Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million he earned in 2022, 2023 and 2024 or Zack Wheeler’s $42 million he will earn this year.

Who knows how relevant or realistic the panel will view those comps, especially against the Tigers’ industry-record $19 million offer. Who knows if the Tigers would have been better off submitting a bid in the low-$20 million range.

The number the panel will be most focused on is $25.5 million. That’s the midpoint between the two offers. Its task would be to decide if Skubal deserves more or less than that.

Makes you wonder why either side would let a neutral party make that decision.

'Just trade him'

One of the recurring cries from fans on social media is for the Tigers to just trade Skubal and get it over with. How crazy is that?

Skubal is still under team control. Whatever happens in arbitration or before the hearing, Skubal will be a Tiger.

There have been fake trade scenarios thrown around all offseason, which was expected since Skubal is entering his final year with the Tigers and, with contract extension talks long ceased, could be in line for a $400 million free-agent payday next offseason.

Harris listened to whatever offers teams wanted to make, but it was clear from the beginning that the asking price would be exorbitant (as it should be) and he wasn’t wavering from it. If Skubal wasn't traded before Thursday, he's not going anywhere now. At least not until the trade deadline next July.

It was clear even before the general managers meetings in November that the Tigers felt their most prudent path was to ride Skubal for at least one more playoff run in 2026.

This arbitration process, however it turns out, isn’t going to change that and it isn’t going to sour Skubal or blunt his competitive fire once the season starts.

Skubal probably understands the business side of this game as well as anyone. He’s invested in it, not just monetarily but as a member of the MLBPA executive subcommittee.

His union status will have no bearing on the arbitration process, of course, but this will give him valuable insight as he prepares to lead the players into the next round of negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement next winter.

There’s going to be a lot of drama and handwringing for the next few weeks leading up to a potential trial date. But ultimately, he’s going to sign back with the Tigers — be it an agreement or an arbitration settlement.

Skubal is going to show up in Lakeland, Fla., next month just as he has the last six springs. Same old Skub. Wealthier and wiser, for sure. But driven, maybe more than ever, to help take the Tigers to the World Series.

That's about the only thing I am sure of with all of this.

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