In other words, a really large turnout — one that would bring out people who currently don’t expect to vote — could hurt Biden’s chances.

That’s a big change: A generation of Democratic activists have grown up with the idea that big turnout is always their friend.

In the Trump era, that’s not true.

Factors that could shift the vote

Biden’s lead among likely voters shrinks when third-party and independent candidates are added to the mix.

In a five-way test with Biden, Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein, the incumbent leads among young voters with 43%. Trump takes 30%, and 8% go for Kennedy, who is running as an independent; 4% for Stein, the Green Party candidate and 2% for West, the philosopher and political activist who also is an independent. The remaining voters are undecided.

Will Kennedy, Stein and West qualify for the ballot in the states that matter? No one knows; ballot access deadlines don’t hit for months. And support for third-party candidates typically drops as Election Day nears. But Democrats clearly worry that those candidates could take votes away from Biden. They’ve launched a major effort to persuade voters that a ballot for anyone other than the president is effectively a vote for Trump.

Trump’s legal problems could also have an effect on the vote. The poll found that Biden’s lead among young people would increase by around 9 points if Trump were convicted in any of the four criminal cases he faces. The first of the trials is now underway in New York, where the last of 12 jurors were selected Thursday.

An unaccustomed gender gap

Until recently, young men and young women mostly agreed on politics.

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