The Harvard poll, by contrast, focuses only on 18- to 29-year-olds — 2,010 of them in the current survey. And because polling director John Della Volpe has conducted the surveys for nearly a generation, this is the 47th survey the Institute of Politics has released, the poll has rich data on trends. All that gives its findings particular weight.

In 2020, Biden won by 24 points among voters 18-29, according to a detailed post-election study by the Pew Research Center. To win reelection, he almost certainly needs to come close to that again this year.

Some surveys have shown Biden hitting that mark, but others indicate a much closer race among young Americans. A few even have had Trump ahead, which would represent a huge shift from the pattern of the last 20 years.

The importance of turnout

The Harvard poll shows Biden leading Trump 56%-37% among young people likely to vote. That’s down a bit from the 60%-30% lead the poll found among likely young voters at this point four years ago. It’s also down from Biden’s 2020 winning margin.

But the decline is fairly small and a far cry from the collapse of youth support that some other polls have indicated.

That doesn’t mean young people are content with the status quo — far from it: The poll finds only 9% of young Americans saying that the country is headed in the right direction.

That’s a record low, said Anil Cacodcar, the student leader of the spring survey.

Young people are “deeply concerned about the direction of the country” and about “their economic well being,” Della Volpe said Thursday. Despite that, the choice between Biden and Trump “isn’t necessarily close.”

The bad news for Democrats is that when the Harvard poll looked at all young adults, regardless of their likelihood of voting, the picture changes strikingly: Biden leads, but only 45%-37%.

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