In lieu of any breakthrough on a trade deal between the two countries, the U.K. has been focusing efforts on striking deals with individual U.S. states. In particular, the U.K. government hopes Rishi’s visit can pave the way for closer partnerships with California and Texas.

But these will only have a modest impact at best, when the U.K. economy is only forecast to grow by 0.4% in 2023.

With trade unlikely to further cement U.S.-U.K. ties, Sunak will also have to navigate the divisive question of Northern Ireland. There is still strong bipartisan support in the U.S. for the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended 30 years of conflict in Northern Ireland. This reflects the historic role played by Democratic and Republican administrations in helping to mediate and implement the accord.

In that context, the U.K.’s exit from the EU only served to fuel tension between London and Washington. Brexit negotiations lingered for many years because of the sheer difficulty of reconciling conflicting pressures over the status of Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K. but borders the Republic of Ireland, which remains an EU member state.

Throughout the prolonged Brexit process, American politicians across the aisle repeatedly expressed their concerns to the U.K. government. They emphasized the need to avoid measures that could restore a hard border on the island of Ireland. Among those airing such views was Joe Biden, who warned in 2020, “We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit.”

Biden’s deeply rooted emotional attachment to Ireland has hardly abated since he has been in office. His recent visit in April, for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, was rich in personal significance and symbolism.

Most of the trip was viewed as a homecoming, with Biden visiting his ancestral roots in Ireland. His time in Northern Ireland was brief in comparison, with only a terse meeting with Sunak. And if the message was not sufficiently clear, later remarks by Biden at a fundraiser left little doubt as to the president’s feelings. He went to the island of Ireland “to make sure the Brits didn’t screw around” with the region’s peace process, he said.

Sunak did win some praise for the recent Windsor Framework, which addressed some of the tension over Northern Ireland. But he has yet to solve the prolonged boycott of power-sharing institutions by the pro-U.K. Democratic Unionist Party.

Nonetheless, Sunak will have his work cut out for him to convince Biden that the U.K. can play a constructive role in further stabilizing Northern Ireland.

Trade and Northern Ireland will likely bring little joy for Sunak. He will, however, be on far more fertile ground when the discussion shifts to the realm of security.

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