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Amid coup, counter-coup claims – what really went down in Peru and why?

Eduardo Gamarra, Professor of Politics and International Relations, Florida International University, The Conversation on

Published in Political News

But before the OAS was due to hear a report into the allegations, things escalated, culminating in Castillo’s ouster.

That is a discussion that will likely go on for a long time. Peru’s left will no doubt frame Castillo’s removal as a coup, while anti-Castillo politicians will insist it wasn’t. They will claim they were heading off a coup attempt from Castillo who, by dismissing Congress, was setting the stage to become a dictator-like leader.

My sense is what happened was Castillo was desperate and trying to defend himself from a Congress that was over-zealous about getting rid of him. But this is not to say they do not have grounds for doing so, as there does appear to be credible evidence of corruption.

Having said that, is that enough to say it was a coup – especially when it was brought about through constitutional measures? Perhaps not.

There have been some demonstrations, with people out on the street. But it has been so disorganized, it is hard to say who has been protesting for what and in support of whom. It also hasn’t developed into widespread protests.

We have seen the usual international appeals for calm, and the OAS has expressed its called for national unity.

Meanwhile, leftist leaders in the region have expressed support for the ousted Castillo. Brazil’s president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva expressed concern but said it was a “constitutional removal.” Others, such as Bolivia’s President Luis Arce framed Castillo’s ouster as the “overthow” of a democratically elected government.

There has been very little comment of consequence from the U.S. other than welcoming the new president and urging democratic order. Both the U.S. and regional leaders are likely hoping that the political and economic instability that has plagued Peru in recent years ends. The concern is that ongoing chaos could affect regional stability, and also affect Peru’s position as a trading partner – the country is a large producer of copper and silver, among other mineral resources.

There are a lot of ways this could play out. The new president has already called for a political truce and a government that represents all parties.

 

But whether she will be allowed to effectively govern given her lack of a mandate is in question. Boluarte is a legitimate president based on the constitutional process that saw her put in place. But she has no legitimacy in the sense of being democratically elected. She was also very closely aligned with Castillo.

Perhaps the best thing she could do is call immediately for general elections so the people can have a say in what happens next.

But that could also be a risk, given the degree of political polarization in Peru. The country has seen a rise in xenophobic and nationalistic sentiment, due in part to high levels of immigration into the country.

Peruvians want a government that can actually govern. The fear, however, is that the country’s current conditions – economic and political instability mixed with polarization and growing xenophobia – could lend itself to the emergence of a far right populist.

This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It was written by: Eduardo Gamarra, Florida International University. News from experts, from an independent nonprofit. Try our free newsletters.

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As an academic and as director of a university research center, I've received funding from foundations, US government agencies, and multilateral institutions.


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