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Tropical Storm Alberto could form while NHC watches 2 other systems

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on

Published in Weather News

Tropical Storm Alberto is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday while the National Hurricane Center tracks two more systems including one in the Atlantic that could threaten Florida and a second in the Gulf.

As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the NHC was tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One in the western Gulf of Mexico located about 355 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico and 410 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas with 40 mph sustained winds moving north at 7 mph.

“Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday,” NHC forecasters said.

If it does, it would become the season’s first named storm, but for now, forecasters give it an 80% chance for formation in the next two days. Its tropical-storm-force winds, though, already extend out across a swath 290 miles wide.

Rainfall from 5-10 inches and some areas with as much as 15 inches are forecast to fall across northeast Mexico and into South Texas that could produce flash floods, urban flooding, river flooding and mudslides.

Tropical storm warnings are in place for the Texas coast from Port O’Connor south to the mouth of the Rio Grande River, and continuing south in Mexico on its northeastern coast to Puerto de Altamira.

Storm surge of 2-4 feet is forecast for Sargent to Sabine Pass, Texas as well as Galveston Bay and from 1-3 feet from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent and from Sabine Pass north to the Vermilion-Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.

The NHC is also tracking two more systems with the potential to grow into a tropical depression or storm.

Of most concern to Florida is an area of showers located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated with a surface trough and upper-level area of low pressure.

“Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward,” forecasters said. “The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday.”

 

The National Weather Service in Melbourne expects the system to bring at least some rain to the state as the system approaches.

“Models continue to be in some disagreement with timing and placement of (the systems),” according to the NWS long-term forecast. “Howevermost models do agree that an increase in moisture across Florida will occur.”

The NHC gives it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% within the next seven days.

The NHC also began assessing a broad area of low pressure that is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward,” the NHC said.

It’s roughly the same area that Potential Tropical Cyclone One’s system developed over the Bay of Campeche.

The NHC gives is a 20% chance to form in the next seven days.

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