Bhavini Patel stands between Summer Lee and a second term in Pittsburgh congressional race
Published in Political News
It has all the elements of a high-profile congressional race in November: provocative ads, millions of dollars in fundraising and campaign spending, and two candidates — a favored incumbent and determined challenger — who have exchanged verbal blows over national hot-button issues, including the Israel-Hamas war, dark money and support for President Joe Biden.
Except it's the Democratic primary in April.
Summer Lee, a freshman progressive who represents Pittsburgh and its eastern and southern suburbs, aims to withstand a challenge by Bhavini Patel, a more moderate Edgewood borough council member. The winner likely will be the favorite against Republican James Hayes in the general election in November.
Lee, 36, has demanded an unconditional cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war, a politically risky stance in a district that includes one of the most prominent Jewish enclaves in Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh-area Jewish leaders have repeatedly sent letters to Lee criticizing her stance on the war and urging her to more forcefully denounce antisemitism.
Multiple voters told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that while the Israel-Hamas issue is important, it's not the only one in the race.
Patel, 30, says her opponent is not a true representative of Democratic voters in the district, claiming a more moderate voice in Washington would be more effective, and she says Lee has failed to adequately back Biden in a presidential-election year.
And she says she also has tried to pin down Lee on more local issues, but Lee continues to turn the contest into one heavy on national topics.
Lee has pilloried Patel for having the support of Republicans, including at least one conservative PAC funded by a Philadelphia-area billionaire. Patel's supporters counter that much of Lee's so-called grassroots support is money coming from outside the district.
Lee's initial victory in the 2022 Democratic primary was a five-candidate nail-biter in which she beat Steve Irwin, a former state official, by fewer than 1,000 votes. But despite her provocative nature and progressive views — some of which have caught the ire of Democratic voters around the district — she's still the incumbent.
And in a head-to-head race, even against a local elected official like Patel, it's always difficult to beat someone in office, especially in a primary.
"There's enormous value in incumbency," said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College. "You've succeeded in winning a primary before, and you have higher name recognition. You've built up relationships within your district while serving in office ... those are major factors."
Those connections have been a hallmark of Lee's messaging: that she's served communities effectively across the expanse of the 12th Congressional District.
It's also part of what Patel has used as ammunition on the debate stage: that her opponent is too far to the left to represent the area.
It's an argument that will need to stick if Patel is to have a chance. And she must get Democrats to turn out in the far-flung areas of the district — and in Squirrel Hill, one area where she has seized on her differences with Lee.
"Patel knows where she needs to get her votes from ... turnout is going to be very important," said Larry Ceisler, a public affairs executive based in Philadelphia who tracks various races across Pennsylvania.
Demographics: Squirrel Hill and beyond
An adage of politics is that a profusion of yard signs isn't necessarily an accurate barometer for which way an election might go — because yard signs don't vote.
But in the case of the Bhavini Patel signs in and around Squirrel Hill, they're at least an indication that she has gained traction with voters in that neighborhood. Multiple residents confirmed last week that Patel has their votes.
The two candidates have sparred repeatedly over the U.S. involvement in the Israel-Hamas war.
Patel says Lee has ignored Jewish concerns in Squirrel Hill since Hamas' attack on Israel and beforehand. The incumbent counters by saying she has always traveled across the district and talked with leaders of various religious institutions and beliefs.
If yard signs and a small sampling of Squirrel Hill Democrats are any indicator, Patel appears primed to win the neighborhood.
Judy Kenal, 67, said she "was extremely impressed with Bhavini's track record of community service." And the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club, which backed Lee during her run for state representative in 2018 and again for Congress in 2022, decided recently to back the challenger.
Jane Louik, a club vice president who runs the election endorsement process, said an influx of new members in the six weeks before the vote — at least 120 people — has helped tilt the scales in favor of Patel. Louik said she personally supports Lee but has seen a great shift in thinking in the club in the weeks leading up to the vote April 23.
And Louik said the Patel endorsement is a bit more nuanced than the media is portraying it.
"I can't tell if it's more anti-Lee or if it's pro-Israel ... (because) some of the new members who want to elect Patel have some misgivings about (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu," Louik said. "I think there are a number of reasons."
Despite the attention in Squirrel Hill, it is just one neighborhood of a district that stretches well beyond the confines of Pittsburgh, out into the Mon Valley and the strip malls and suburbs of eastern Allegheny and western Westmoreland counties.
In some ways, Lee is trying to nationalize a local race, while Patel is trying to appeal to enough voting groups in the district to win, according to political observers.
A sampling of a few dozen voters across the district indicates many still want to do more research before voting, even if they're leaning one way or another.
But there are likely two major factions: a progressive base anchored in Pittsburgh and the immediate suburbs versus more moderate voters who may want to shift to a less polarizing, more moderate candidate.
Progressives tend to turn out heavily in primaries, politicos said. That means Lee will be difficult to beat, unless Patel can draw moderate voters to the polls.
Berwood Yost, a political science professor who also runs public polling at Franklin & Marshall College, said because the presidential and U.S. Senate primary races are already decided statewide, turnout between those two groups of voters becomes more of a factor.
"Allegheny County has shown a willingness to send candidates to office who are a bit more progressive than other parts of the state," Yost said. "It comes down to these two factions, and how large of a pool of voters turn out on Election Day or mail in their ballots on Election Day, within each of those factions."
Conservative money vs. progressive donors
In congressional races, fundraising and ad spending are an indicator of how competitive a challenger is trying to be, versus how well an incumbent has used the institutional advantages of a federal office to win re-election.
This race is no different — but the amount of money in it, since the beginning of the year and before then, is considerable, easily reaching millions of dollars.
Lee has raised about $1.4 million since the beginning of the year, far outpacing her opponent's total of nearly $700,000.
Patel has benefited from TV ads that attack Lee for being too progressive for the 12th District and for not supporting Biden in a presidential election year, spots that are being run by Moderate PAC, which is not affiliated with Patel's campaign. Jeffrey Yass, a Republican megadonor and reportedly a front-runner for U.S. Treasury secretary if former president Donald Trump wins election this year, has recently contributed $800,000 to that PAC.
But the congresswoman has called on progressive groups like the Working Families Party, Sunrise Movement and Justice Democrats to counteract — and surpass — the investment made by Yass and other donors looking to unseat her.
Lee also has the advantage of one outside group staying out of the race so far: the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC. In 2022, that group spent about $4 million to try to keep Lee out of office. It has spent nothing on the race this year. That could be a sign, some strategists say, that Lee has a comfortable lead.
Despite the baggage that may come with support from the Moderate PAC, getting one's message out is better than people not knowing about you or your candidacy.
"Bhavini Patel is not a household name before this," said Borick. "If you want to have a decent chance of pulling off an upset and knocking off an incumbent, it can't be overstated, the importance (of that funding_."
Candidates make their final push
A general consensus among a small sample of voters and political watchers is that this Democratic primary is Lee's race to lose. She is currently in office, has an impressive war chest, has taken the jabs from Patel's campaign and has a dedicated voter base in the district.
"We're going to say to people, whether it's AIPAC or Jeff Yass or whoever and however they present themselves, that this isn't how we want politics run in our community," Lee said at a recent event hosted by Justice Democrats backing her and other members of the "Squad" — a group of some of the most progressive representatives in Congress. Lee encouraged voters to turn out for or donate to such candidates — including herself.
"The power of the people will prevail," she said.
Patel says she finds it "shocking" that Lee refuses to denounce a coordinated effort by pro-Palestinian groups to persuade voters to write in "uncommitted" rather than cast a vote for Biden.
"The fact that we have a sitting congresswoman who represents a critical region where we need to advance turnout ... it's quite frankly very shocking that she's unable to denounce the uncommitted movement," Patel said during a recent debate.
Ultimately, Patel has to convince enough voters in the 12th District that as a moderate, she is a better option. But progressives don't live exclusively in the city, and voters elsewhere in the district have seen Lee in their communities.
One of them, a 43-year-old Pittsburgh teacher who lives in West Mifflin, used to live in the same neighborhood as Lee in Swissvale, years ago. She doesn't know Lee personally, but has seen her in the community, including when Lee was a state representative, and supports her.
"I've seen her dedication ... she was always out at those events," said that voter, who asked that her name not be used because she feared repercussions at her school. "She supported her district during COVID. I can speak to Summer's character personally."
The election will be held in 10 days — plenty of time for people to make a decision or change their minds. Mail-in ballots may be in people's hands, but some are still mulling their options.
Joseph Sabino Mistick, a law professor at Duquesne University and chief of staff to former Mayor Sophie Masloff, said Lee has name recognition over Patel. Whether that helps her win is up to Democrats in the district.
"For better or worse, (Lee) is definitely aligned with the progressive movement and the Squad," Mistick said. "To some extent, her race may be a referendum on that form of progressivism."
(c)2024 the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Visit the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette at www.post-gazette.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
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