Biden and Trump, though old, are both likely to survive to the end of the next president’s term, demographers explain

Biden and Trump are both non-Hispanic white men. Biden is 81 and Trump is 77.

Based on the age-specific death rates of non-Hispanic white men in the U.S. in 2021, Biden has a 92.9% probability of surviving at least to age 82. Trump has a 95.1% probability of surviving to at least age 78. These odds are nearly identical, so each man is very likely to be alive on Inauguration Day 2025, regardless of which of them is being sworn in as president.

What about finishing out that four-year term? Our calculations from the life tables reveal that there is a 63.3% probability that Biden will survive another five years – to at least 86. And there is a 73.6% probability for Trump to survive that period – to at least age 82. Of course, it’s possible either or both will die, but their odds of death are much lower than their odds of survival.

In general, the chances are a bit more favorable for Trump, because he is slightly younger.

There are two factors that let us demographers get even more specific.

First, we measure age as exact years. Their age gap is not four years, but 3.5: Biden was born on Nov. 20, 1942, and Trump on June 14, 1946. That 10 percentage-point survival advantage for Trump over Biden was based on a four-year age difference. The real difference drops one or two points because they’re not quite so far apart in age.

Second, demographers have shown that people who attend church regularly live longer than those who don’t. This is not because of some divine favor but because churchgoers tend to have more optimistic attitudes, clearer senses of purpose and more regular social interactions and connections. All of these factors extend people’s lives. Biden is a Catholic and attends Mass weekly, in general. Trump was raised as a Presbyterian but now considers himself to be a “nondenominational Christian,” and he attends religious services very irregularly. So, Biden gets the survival advantage associated with churchgoing.

Other factors come into play with longevity as well, such as marital status, body mass index scores, diets and levels of physical fitness and exercise.

Biden and Trump are two of the three oldest people ever to serve as president. The population they are seeking to lead is also older than ever before.

The median age of the nation’s population was 38.9 in 2022 compared with 28.1 in 1970 and just 16.7 in 1820.

“Relative to the age of the population, President Biden is no older than the country’s first presidents,” including Thomas Jefferson, wrote James Chappel, a scholar of aging and history at Duke University, in The New York Times. More recently, Reagan was older than the median American of his time than Biden and Trump are today.

At their second inaugurations, Jefferson was roughly 45 years older than the median age of the U.S. population then, and Reagan 43 years older. If Biden wins a second term, he will be 42 years older than today’s median. If Trump wins in 2024, he will be 38 years older than the current median.

As demographers, we can say it is likely that both Biden and Trump will be alive when the presidential term that begins in 2025 comes to an end in 2029. But as the U.S. population gets older too, the age factor may become less important to voters. This is not an immediate change, however, but one that will likely occur over the next decade or so.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Dudley L. Poston Jr., Texas A&M University and Rogelio Sáenz, The University of Texas at San Antonio

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.