How an obscure energy calculation could dramatically speed up America's EV future

In their original petition, the organizations said the rules were “based on outdated data and circumstances.”

They also said the old calculation, which was meant to help the “early commercialization” of EVs, had already served its purpose. In October 2021, when the groups submitted their petition, fully electric and plug-in hybrid models represented about 5.3% of the U.S. market for new cars, according to data from Wards Auto. Now they are about 9.6%.

“There's probably some debate about exactly what (the calculation) should be. Because there's a lot of math that goes into it. But it should be significantly lower than what it is, from a pure scientific standpoint,” said Burns, adding that the old version “was inflated quite a bit to encourage EVs.”

The Environmental Protection Agency also gives its own MPG rating to electric vehicles. Those ratings, historically, have been much lower than ones assigned to EVs using the petroleum equivalency factor calculation.

The new math will bring the numbers closer together. And as part of the new rule, the Department of Energy has promised to review its calculation every year and formally propose changes as needed.

That will be important as more of the U.S. grid relies on less-polluting energy sources like solar, wind and nuclear power. With cleaner sources of electricity, the MPG ratings for EVs could rise again.

A 'multiplier' of other rules

Burns called the new math a “multiplier” on top of the more stringent targets coming soon from the Biden administration.

That multiplier effect, he instructed, is made clear with simplified examples of how automakers would need to meet proposed CAFE targets under the old and new energy calculations.

Imagining a world where Ford Motor Co. only sold its best-selling F-150 trucks, which come in electric and gas-powered varieties, the automaker could meet Biden’s proposed 2032 fuel economy targets by reaching 25% EV sales under the old PEF math.

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