No shortage of House members who are vulnerable this year

WASHINGTON — Less than six months out from Election Day, the 10 most vulnerable House members are a mix of Republicans and Democrats, including two progressives facing tough primary challenges.

The other eight members to make the list will be battling to keep their seats in November. Taking over the No. 1 spot — after its occupant in our November ranking was expelled from the House — is New York Republican Rep. Brandon Williams. His district saw some of the greatest changes after New York’s Democratic-controlled state legislature approved new maps in February.

Fellow New Yorkers Anthony D’Esposito and Mike Lawler remain on the list, as does California Rep. John Duarte. Returning is fellow California Rep. Mike Garcia. And joining the list for the first time this cycle are Democrats Don Davis of North Carolina and Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania.

With 22 members representing districts that would have voted for the opposite party’s presidential nominee in 2020, there are members who narrowly missed this list but could find themselves on it as the campaign progresses. Arizona GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani is sure to have a competitive rematch against Democrat Kristen Engel. Ciscomani had significantly more outside support than Engel did in 2022, according to OpenSecrets, but Democrats have signaled that could change this year. On the other side, Republicans hope that Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system won’t be a roadblock again to ousting Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a state that then-President Trump won by 10 points in 2020.

Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush, both progressives, join the list at the fifth and sixth spot due to the competitive primaries each face. Bowman and Bush, who are both aligned with Justice Democrats, face Democratic candidates who have outraised them. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee also endorsed both George Latimer in New York and Wesley Bell in Missouri, as did the Democratic Majority for Israel, and progressives are bracing for outside spending by pro-Israel groups in both races.

But there are other members facing serious primary challenges. In Texas, Rep. Tony Gonzales is in a runoff election later this month. Virginia Rep. Bob Good, the chair of the House Freedom Caucus, appears to be in serious trouble. Cardinal News reported Wednesday that an internal poll taken by his primary challenger, state Sen. John McGuire, showed him with a 14-point lead over Good. In both Gonzales’ and Good’s cases, there are Republican House colleagues backing their opponent, a somewhat unusual twist in the campaign.

In New Jersey, freshman Rep. Rob Menendez faces a June Democratic primary challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. Menendez has maintained institutional support that his father, Sen. Bob Menendez — who tops our list of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents — lost after he was indicted last year. But after a federal judge barred the state’s primary ballot design, which gave preferential placement to candidates who had the support of county chairs as the younger Menendez did, he could have a more difficult path to securing renomination.

Another member who could join the list in the coming months is Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar, who was indicted last week alongside his wife on charges that he took $600,000 in bribes from the government of Azerbaijan and an unnamed foreign bank headquartered in Mexico City.

National Republicans could take another look at Cuellar’s seat in the 28th District, which he won by 13 percentage points two years ago. Republicans Jay Furman and Lazaro Garza are the two candidates in a runoff election later this month after no candidates reached a 50% threshold during the March primary.

And to reiterate, this list only looks at incumbents and not at open seats that could flip and affect party control. Here’s a rundown of the 10 most vulnerable:

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