“You cannot win the state of Pennsylvania unless you can compete in the corners and Bob Casey’s gonna compete in the corners,” Reilly said, referring to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh’s suburbs and to swing counties in the state’s Northwest and Northeast.

McCormick would be best served to run in the suburbs “like he’s running for county commissioner,” Democratic strategist Balaban said. He’s started doing that with an aggressive schedule winding him around the state on his campaign bus.

And he needs to keep drawing a line between Biden and Casey while navigating a tricky political relationship of his own with Trump, who endorsed him at a rally earlier this month.

“Dave’s strength is he is an independent conservative guy, not a lifelong politician,” Reilly said. “He has to establish that he’s going to vote for what’s best for Pennsylvania, not business interests, not what’s best for MAGA.”

Republicans only need to pick up two seats to retake the Senate, and only one if Trump is elected president.

McCormick is running as a more moderate candidate than he did when he was vying for the GOP nomination against Oz in 2022. And he’s portrayed himself as an outsider running against a career politician.

“Bob Casey … has voted for the excessive spending that’s led to inflation, the war on fossil fuels, open border policies, and he’s out of touch,” McCormick said.

Casey has used his Pennsylvania bona fides to contrast with McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO who grew up in Pennsylvania and moved back in 2022 but still lives part-time in Connecticut.

“You have an out-of-state candidate being funded and backed by out-of-state billionaires,” Casey said of McCormick on the call with reporters. “You can’t trust him to be on the side of workers, on the side of families, and on the side of the most vulnerable.”

At the polls on Tuesday, voters from both parties expressed confidence in their chosen candidates.

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